Historical Evaluation and Future Projections of 100‐m Wind Energy Potentials Over CORDEX‐East Asia

Abstract

Countries in East Asia have set ambitious goals for the development of wind energy to meet the increasing energy demand and to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. However, few studies have investigated changes in wind energy over East Asia under future climatic conditions. In this study, we investigate future changes of 100‐m wind speed and wind energy potential over the CORDEX‐East Asia region under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, by using ensemble simulations from the regional climate model Consortium for small‐scale modeling in CLimate Mode (CCLM). A multivariate bias adjustment method based on the N‐dimensional probability density function transform is used to correct raw simulated horizontal wind components. The comparison between future climate (2021–2050 and 2070–2099) and the present climate (1971–2000) shows decreases in wind speed, wind power density, and wind energy output over most of the CORDEX‐East Asia region, especially in the tropics. Projected increases are pronounced over the Himalayan regions, the Indo‐China Peninsula, the South China Sea, and the western Pacific Ocean in summer and over northeastern China, parts of Western China and the Indo‐China Peninsula in winter. Interannual and intra‐annual variability of wind power density are projected to intensify significantly for most of the CORDEX‐East Asia region. The occurrence of weak wind speeds (<3 m/s) is projected to increase, while strong wind speeds (>11 m/s) are projected to decrease over most of the ocean.

Dynamical downscaling of inland and offshore near‐surface wind speed over China inCORDEXEast Asia Phase I andIIexperiments

“…The other one is the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), which has a spatial resolution of 0.25° globally and 3‐hourly temporal resolution. Many studies have proved that surface wind speed data from ERA5 reanalysis is reliable (Meng et al ., 2018; Li et al ., 2020). For easy comparison, the wind speed data from ERA5 reanalysis and RCM simulations are interpolated to the meteorological stations.…”

“…Vigorously developing renewable energy industry, such as wind power, is not only significant for the target of the Paris Climate Agreement, but also for the sake of social and economic sustainable development. Because of its abundant resources and mature technology, wind energy has been used all over the world in recent years (Li et al ., 2020).…”

“…Using the Consortium for small‐scale modelling in CLimate Mode (CCLM), Li et al . (2020) investigated future change of wind energy potential and projected a decrease in wind power density over most of the CORDEX‐East Asia region. Currently, supported by the development of high‐performance computing, CORDEX‐EA is advancing the second phase (CORDEX‐EA‐II), which has higher resolution at 0.22° or 25 km (Zhou et al ., 2016; Yu et al ., 2020).…”

“…Using a multi-ensemble of CORDEX-EA simulations, Gao et al (2019) found that the abundant wind resources are located in Hexi Corridor, Inner Mongolia and part of the three provinces in the northeast China, and the wind resources in these regions decrease under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Using the Consortium for small-scale modelling in CLimate Mode (CCLM), Li et al (2020) investigated future change of wind energy potential and projected a decrease in wind power density over most of the CORDEX-East Asia region. Currently, supported by the development of highperformance computing, CORDEX-EA is advancing the second phase (CORDEX-EA-II), which has higher resolution at 0.22 or 25 km (Zhou et al, 2016;Yu et al, 2020).…”

COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Simulations in the CORDEX framework: a review

“…The standard aerosol dataset was replaced with Tegen (Tegen et al, 1997) aerosol climatology. These simulations have been applied in scientific studies focusing on model evaluation or projected change in surface temperature, precipitation and wind speed/energy over CORDEX-EAS (Li et al, 2018(Li et al, , 2019(Li et al, , 2020.…”