Historical Epidemiology of the Second Cholera Pandemic: Relevance to Present Day Disease Dynamics

Abstract

Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham’s 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.

Cholera Epidemics of the Past Offer New Insights Into an Old Enemy

“…To calculate the CFR AR , we needed estimates of R 0 values. A previous analysis of 19th-century European cholera outbreak data reported R 0 values ranging from 1.9 to 550.9 [ 25 ], a range that likely reflects poor data quality rather than the true variability in cholera transmissibility. The unique availability of daily morbidity counts of cholera cases from surveillance efforts in 3 Danish cities allowed for more accurate R 0 estimates, so that our point estimates ranged from 1.7 to 2.6 ( Figure 2 ).…”

2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling

“…There have been ample studies in literature of epidemic modeling using the Richards model, from earlier applications to plant diseases (e.g., Madden, 1980 ; Lalancette, Madden & Ellis, 1988 ; Segarra, Jeger & Van den Bosch, 2001 ; Hau & Kosman, 2007 ) to more recently modeling various human diseases ( Zhou & Yan, 2003 ; Caceres, Kumma & Wright, 2010 ; Mostaço-Guidolin et al, 2012 ; Wang, Wu & Yang, 2012 ; Chan, Tuite & Fisman, 2013 ; Liu, Tang & Xiao, 2015 , etc.).…”

Diversity of Vibrio spp in Karstic Coastal Marshes in the Yucatan Peninsula

“…V . cholerae was identified, which is the species that is the etiological agent of cholera and has serotypes and biotypes that have caused 7 epidemics around the world [ 32 ]. The highest percentages of this species from among the four study sites were found in this lagoon.…”