Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030

Cammerer, Holger; Thieken, Annegret H.

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0407-9

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Risks and their associated costs will continue to change in the future due to the dynamics of different risk drivers. Such intrinsic dynamics include changes in the probabilities or intensities of hazards due to climate change on the one hand and socio-economic developments on the other (Elmer et al, 2012;Cammerer et al, 2012;Cammerer and Thieken, 2013). The latter include land use changes, demographic changes and changes in asset values at risk, as well as changes in the susceptibility of such elements at risk and the adaptive capacity of communities (cf.…”

Section: Future Dynamics Of Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

Meyer

Becker

Markantonis

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

380

385

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Efficiently reducing natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards. Current methods to assess these costs employ a variety of terminologies and approaches for different types of natural hazards and different impacted sectors. This may impede efforts to ascertain comprehensive and comparable cost figures. In order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management, a review of existing cost assessment approaches was undertaken. This review considers droughts, floods, coastal and Alpine hazards, and examines different cost types, namely direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and the costs of risk mitigation. This paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art cost assessment approaches and discusses key knowledge gaps. It shows that the application of cost assessments in practice is often incomplete and biased, as direct costs receive a relatively large amount of attention, while intangible and indirect effects are rarely considered. Furthermore, all parts of cost assessment entail considerable uncertainties due to insufficient or highly aggregated data sources, along with a lack of knowledge about the processes leading to damage and thus the appropriate models required. Recommendations are provided on how to reduce or handle these uncertainties by improving data sources and cost assessment methods. Further recommendations address how risk dynamics due to climate and socio-economic change can be better considered, how costs are distributed and risks transferred, and in what ways cost assessment can function as part of decision support

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Section: Future Dynamics Of Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

Meyer

Becker

Markantonis

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

380

385

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…This trend, however, is not visible in all regions. In Austria for example, asset growth in floodprone areas has been slower than in areas not prone to flooding (Cammerer and Thieken, 2013). A possible explanation could be that the higher flood protection standards, and thus lower flood probabilities, in the Netherlands have resulted in a stronger sense of safety and thus relatively more development in flood-prone areas (the so-called "levee effect", see Di Baldassarre et al, 2009;Lane et al, 2011;Husby et al, 2014).…”

Section: Physical Exposurementioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

Jongman

Koks

Husby

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on an accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information provides valuable input to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood-prone areas has been higher than in non-flood-prone areas. We also find that property values in flood-prone areas are lower than those in non-flood-prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood-prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

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“…For all subsequent analyses an average replacement value for buildings (€ 279 per m 2 ) was used for the whole study area. Moreover, the upper and lower limits that were found in the study area were used as uncertainty measure (see Cammerer and Thieken 2013 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Bouwer et al ( 2010 ), the GDP had to be further corrected by relative changes of allocated built-up areas, since economic growth is already partly covered by the expansion of built-up areas that are simulated by the land use model. Finally, all grid cells occupied by residential areas in the different land use scenarios obtained an adjusted specific building replacement value, expressed in prices of the reference year 2006 (for further details see Cammerer and Thieken 2013 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol, Austria

Thieken

Cammerer

Dobler

et al. 2014

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses—with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.

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Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030

Cited by 21 publications

References 30 publications

Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

Increasing flood exposure in the Netherlands: implications for risk financing

Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol, Austria

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