Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial–modern China

Abstract

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures.

Steep topography buffers threatened gymnosperm species against anthropogenic pressures in China

“…Here, the authors suggest that steep slopes might act as refuge for forests since land use in these areas is less intense. Another study on Chinese gibbons finds an association with topography, similar to our study, where populations of gibbon persisted longer at higher elevations and disappeared earlier from the northern and eastern parts of China, consistent with the demographic expansion of humans (Turvey, Crees, & Di Fonzo, ). Results from our study similarly suggest that especially threatened species are strongly associated with steep topography, and because of the interaction with human population density, this association is possibly human‐induced or exacerbated.…”

Heading for the hills? Evaluating spatial distribution of woodland caribou in response to a growing anthropogenic disturbance footprint

“…; Clapp and Beck ; Turvey et al. ). Historic data on the distribution of Narraway and Redrock‐Prairie Creek caribou (i.e., Brown and Hobson ) lacked sufficient sample size to consider all seasons; thus, we built a baseline range using data from the initial phase of GPS data collection (1998–2005).…”

Holocene range collapse of giant muntjacs and pseudo‐endemism in the Annamite large mammal fauna

“…The disappearance of giant muntjacs across China and their survival at the south‐eastern margin of their known Holocene geographical distribution matches the ‘range eclipse’ or ‘contagion’ model of range collapse, where the biogeography of range contraction is determined by the directional spread of anthropogenic extinction factors, and with final population persistence typically occurring in areas along the edge of a historical range which are impacted last by these extinction forces (Channell & Lomolino, , ; Hemerik et al ., ). A similar pattern of persistence of remnant populations of declining species in areas experiencing reduced human environmental pressures at the south‐western margin of Eastern Asia, following wide‐scale extirpation across China in response to documented past regional human population growth and demographic expansion, has recently been demonstrated for gibbons using historical records dating across the late Imperial–modern period (Turvey et al ., ). Persistence of final populations of giant muntjac in the Annamite Mountain chain up to c .…”

“…Persistence of final populations of giant muntjac in the Annamite Mountain chain up to c . 1000 m above sea level (Timmins et al ., ) is also consistent with increased extinction vulnerability of many taxa at lower elevations due to greater human population growth and habitat conversion in these more accessible regions, and survival of remnant populations of many threatened species at higher elevations (Li et al ., ; Fisher, ; Zhu et al ., ; Turvey et al ., ). Although giant muntjacs have been reported into the first millennium bc in the middle Yangtze region (Wu & Zhou, ; Wu, ), the timing of their extirpation across China is somewhat uncertain as material referred to M. gigas from some archaeological sites has not been adequately figured or described; we encourage further research to establish a more robust regional extinction chronology for the species, so that the dynamics and drivers of Asian large mammal range collapse can be better understood.…”