To identify variables that are independent predictors of adverse outcomes in chronic hepatitis C, we analyzed a cohort of 455 patients followed for a median of 4.7 years. Associations were sought between demographic and behavioral factors, hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype, liver histology and liver tests at entry, and development of liver complications, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), hepatic transplantation and liver-related death. Independent predictors were identified by multivariate analysis. The following were associated with a significantly higher rate of liver complications: age; birth in Asia, Europe, Mediterranean region, or Egypt; transmission by blood transfusion or sporadic cases; HCV genotypes 1b and 4 (compared with 1/1a); fibrosis stage 3 or 4 (cirrhosis); serum albumin; bilirubin; prothrombin time; and ␣-fetoprotein. However, the only independent predictors of liver-related complications were sporadic transmission (P F .001), advanced fibrosis (P ؍ .004), and low albumin (P F .001). The corresponding independent risk factors for HCC were male gender (P ؍ .07), sporadic transmission (P F .001), and albumin (P F .001); bilirubin (P ؍ .02) was an additional predictor of transplantation or liver-related death. It is concluded that only patients with advanced hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis, are at risk of developing hepatic complications of chronic hepatitis C during 5-year follow-up. Among such patients, abnormalities in serum albumin, bilirubin, or prothrombin time indicate a high probability of complications. The rate of fibrotic progression in chronic hepatitis C is highly variable, 1 and the natural history of the disease usually extends over several decades. In some patients, it may culminate in the life-threatening liver complications of portal hypertension, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver failure requiring hepatic transplantation or leading to liverrelated death. Such complications are rarely noted in the absence of cirrhosis. The factors that influence the rate of fibrotic progression in hepatitis C virus (HCV) include age at the time of HCV infection and at initial evaluation, male sex, HCV genotype, and alcohol consumption. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] It is less clear as to whether any of these factors influence the onset of liver-related complications other than by their effects on the rate of fibrotic progression.The proportion of all patients with hepatitis C who develop life-threatening complications is also unclear. Many studies are confined to either the first 20 years of HCV infection when complications appear to be unusual, [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] or to the late stage of the disease when cirrhosis is present. [13][14][15][16] Thus some cohort studies have found low mortality rates at 17 to 20 years, particularly among younger individuals and among those who have a risk factor other than blood transfusion. 8,9,11,12,17 Others have indicated that approximately 18% of patients develop liver-related complications or HCC or succumb to liver-related death within 18 year...