Hindcast Study Of Winds, Waves, and Currents In Northern Gulf Of Mexico In Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Cox, A. T.; Cardone, Vincent J.; Counillon, François; Szabo, D.

doi:10.4043/17736-ms

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This study is analogous to comprehensive studies that we have performed of Hurricane Andrew (1992) carried out in 1993-1994 (1), Hurricane Lili (2) and Hurricane Ivan (3). This study is analogous to comprehensive studies that we have performed of Hurricane Andrew (1992) carried out in 1993-1994 (1), Hurricane Lili (2) and Hurricane Ivan (3).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 69%

“…The method starts from raw data whenever possible and includes an intensive reanalysis of traditional cyclone parameters such as track and intensity (in terms of pressure) and then develops new estimates of the more difficult storm parameters, such as the shape of the radial pressure profile and the ambient pressure field within which the cyclone is embedded. Further details of the methodology may also be found in (3). Storm track and storm parameters are then used to drive a numerical primitive equation model of the cyclone planetary boundary layer (PBL) to generate a preliminary picture of the time-varying wind field associated with the cyclone circulation itself.…”

Section: Hindcast Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Hindcast of Winds, Waves and Currents in Northern Gulf of Mexico in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Rita (2005)

Cardone¹,

Cox²,

Forristall

2007

All Days

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The evolution of the response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of sea state, ocean currents and water level in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is prescribed through the application of advanced numerical ocean response hindcast models. The wave hindcast utilizes a third-generation model that had been extensively validated against recent severe GOM hurricanes. For the present study a high resolution nested grid system (3 nm grid spacing basin-wide; 0.6 nm spacing in the coastal zone) is implemented. Currents and storm surge in shallow water are modeled with the ADCIRC community hydrodynamic model and mixed layer currents in deep water are modeled with a newly calibrated turbulence-closure current profile model. The wind fields in these hurricanes and especially in Katrina during the 24-hours before landfall, exhibited anomalous features that precluded the use of a simple wind modeling approach. Therefore, the wind fields used to drive the ocean response models were kinematically reanalyzed from all available in-situ, airborne and satellite data sources. The ocean response hindcasts were validated against all available measurements and generally exhibited good skill and negligible bias except at NOAA buoy 42040, which reported the highest significant wave height (16.9m), where the hindcast is about 10% lower than the measurement. These hindcasts were made to support the MMS sponsored program on post-mortem engineering studies; they are also of needed for the reassessment of design criteria. TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Section: Hindcast Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hindcast of Winds, Waves and Currents in Northern Gulf of Mexico in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Rita (2005)

Cardone¹,

Cox²,

Forristall

2007

All Days

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“…For the purposes of open ocean deep-water wave hindcasting of well-documented recent NAO basin hurricanes, such as Floyd (2002), Lili (2002), Cardone et al (2004), andIvan (2004), Cox et al (2005), the solutions of carefully initialized PBL solutions and operational HWnd snapshots provide wave hindcasts with second-or third-generation spectral wave prediction models that are comparable in skill though the blended solutions hold a small margin of skill over pure PBL or HWnd derived wind fields. In such simulations, typically the entire life history of the cyclone is modeled and the time scale of significant changes in wind intensity and structure are of the order of one day.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclone Atmospheric Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities

Cardone¹,

Cox²

2009

Nat Hazards

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Several wind fields developed for Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are applied with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to explore the sensitivity of predictions of coastal surges to wind fields developed by alternative methods. The alternative model predictions are evaluated against water level measurements provided by gages at two coastal locations. It is found that all the post-event analyzed wind fields yield a range of predictions of only ±10% of the available peak surge measurements regardless of whether the wind fields are produced by dynamical boundary layer models, kinematic analysis methods or a blend. However, the richness of meteorological forcing data in the GOM is not typically matched in other basins affected by tropical cyclones and errors may be much larger where storm intensity and size parameters are estimated mainly from satellite data. The attributes and remaining critical deficiencies of current methods for surface wind specification in both data-rich and data-poor environments are reviewed.

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“…Previous studies have investigated the impact of extreme wind events on wave modeling (e.g., Jensen et al 2006;Xu et al 2006;Tolman et al 2005;Cox et al 2005). These events are important to a wide ranging set of commercial, recreational, and ocean engineering interests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves

Lazarus

Wilson

Splitt

et al. 2013

Weather and Forecasting

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A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a combination of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and a parametric wind model. The default drag parameterization is replaced by one that is more in line with recent studies where a cap at weak-to-moderate wind speeds is applied. Quadrant-based significant wave height (H s ) statistics are composited in a storm-relative reference frame and stratified by the radius of maximum wind, storm speed, and storm intensity. Improvements in H s are gleaned from both downscaling the NARR winds and tuning the wave model. However, the paradigm whereby the drag coefficient depends solely on the wind speed is limiting. Results indicate that H s is biased low in the right quadrants (for all statistical subcategories). Conversely, H s is high biased in the left-rear quadrant even though the analysis wind field is underforecast there. At radii less than 100 nautical miles, the model peak wave direction is offset from the observed, with the model (buoy) peak more in line with (to the left of) the direction of the tropical cyclone motion. As a result, the predominant storm-relative wind direction, which is northwesterly in the left-rear quadrant, opposes that of the buoy peak wave direction, while the model peak is more crosswise with respect to the wind. This will likely reduce the magnitude of the wind stress in the model.

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Hindcast Study Of Winds, Waves, and Currents In Northern Gulf Of Mexico In Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Cited by 12 publications

References 8 publications

Hindcast of Winds, Waves and Currents in Northern Gulf of Mexico in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Rita (2005)

Hindcast of Winds, Waves and Currents in Northern Gulf of Mexico in Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Rita (2005)

Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves

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