Highly Variable El Niño–Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

Cobb, Kim M.; Westphal, Niko; Sayani, H. R.; Watson, Jordan T.; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Charles, Christopher D.

doi:10.1126/science.1228246

Cited by 428 publications

(472 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Although paleo-ENSO records are difficult to reconstruct, particularly in the early Holocene (33−35), our IRM soft-flux record appears to be consistent with paleo-ENSO proxies available for the Holocene. Geological data and climate models document a mid-Holocene reduction in ENSO intensity and fewer El Niño-related flood events (33,34,(36)(37)(38) (Fig. 3 D and E).…”

Section: Close Correlation Between El Niño−southern Oscillation and Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China

Zhu

Feinberg

Xie

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

163

137

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Extreme hydrologic events such as storms and floods have the potential to severely impact modern human society. However, the frequency of storms and their underlying mechanisms are limited by a paucity of suitable proxies, especially in inland areas. Here we present a record of speleothem magnetic minerals to reconstruct paleoprecipitation, including storms, in the eastern Asian monsoon area over the last 8.6 ky. The geophysical parameter IRMsoft-fluxrepresents the flux of soil-derived magnetic minerals preserved in stalagmite HS4, which we correlate with rainfall amount and intensity. IRMsoft-fluxexhibits relatively higher values before 6.7 ky and after 3.4 ky and lower values in the intervening period, consistent with regional hydrological changes observed in independent records. Abrupt enhancements in the flux of pedogenic magnetite in the stalagmite agree well with the timing of known regional paleofloods and with equatorial El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, documenting the occurrence of ENSO-related storms in the Holocene. Spectral power analyses reveal that the storms occur on a significant 500-y cycle, coincident with periodic solar activity and ENSO variance, showing that reinforced (subdued) storms in central China correspond to reduced (increased) solar activity and amplified (damped) ENSO. Thus, the magnetic minerals in speleothem HS4 preserve a record of the cyclic storms controlled by the coupled atmosphere−oceanic circulation driven by solar activity.

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Section: Close Correlation Between El Niño−southern Oscillation and Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China

Zhu

Feinberg

Xie

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

163

137

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“…For example, climate underwent dramatic changes during the last 25 ky as the Earth's climate changed from cold glacial to modern-day warm interglacial conditions. These large changes in climate boundary conditions affected the ENSO system and offer an opportunity to better understand the relationship between the Tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability 5,6 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state

et al. 2013

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important components of the global climate system, but its potential response to an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO 2 remains largely unknown. One of the major limitations in ENSO prediction is our poor understanding of the relationship between ENSO variability and long-term changes in Tropical Pacific oceanography. Here we investigate this relationship using palaeorecords derived from the geochemistry of planktonic foraminifera. Our results indicate a strong negative correlation between ENSO variability and zonal gradient of sea-surface temperatures across the Tropical Pacific during the last 22 ky. This strong correlation implies a mechanistic link that tightly couples zonal sea-surface temperature gradient and ENSO variability during large climate changes and provides a unique insight into potential ENSO evolution in the future by suggesting enhanced ENSO variability under a global warming scenario.

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“…its intensity, could be changed, as implied by adequate proxy reconstructions for at least the last 10,000 years (e.g. Tudhope et al, 2001;Moy et al, 2002;Riedinger et al, 2002;Conroy et al, 2008;Koutavas et al, 2012;Cobb et al, 2013;Carre et al, 2014;Ford et al, 2015;Emile-Geay et al, 2015), attributed to the variations of multiple external forcings. So it is important to study the change of ENSO dynamics of the past to gain some clues for the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Neither observational records (Moy et al, 2002;Riedinger et al, 2002;Conroy et al, 20 2008;Cobb et al, 2013;Carre et al, 2014) nor climate modeling studies (see Roberts et al, 2014 for a summary; An and Choi, 2014) are sufficient enough, till this day, to fully address this issue, and how ENSO responds to the variations of external forcings remains debatable. We provide a perception, self-consistent within at least one complex climate model that the ENSO variability could increase gradually from the mid-Holocene to pre-industrial time due to precessional forcing.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of ENSO over the last 300,000 years in CCSM3

Liu

Chen

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The responses of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Pacific annual cycle to external forcing changes are studied in three 3,000-year-long NCAR-CCSM3 model simulations. The simulations represent the period from 300 thousand years before present (ka BP) to present day. The first idealized simulation is forced only with accelerated 10 orbital variations, and the rest are conducted more realistically by further adding on the time-varying boundary conditions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and continental ice sheets.It is found that orbital forcing dominates slow ENSO evolution, while the effects of GHGs and ice-sheet forcing tend to compensate each other. On the orbital time scales, ENSO variability and annual cycle amplitude change in-phase and both 15 have pronounced precessional cycles (~21,000 years) modulated by variations of eccentricity. Orbital forced ENSO intensity is dominated linearly by the change of the coupled ocean-atmosphere instability, notably the Ekman upwelling feedback and the thermocline feedback; and is also possibly affected during ENSO intrinsic developing season by the remote (or extratropical) influences of the short-scale stochastic weather noises. The acceleration technique is found to dampen the precessional signal in ENSO intensity. 20In glacial-interglacial cycles, additionally, the weakening/strengthening of ENSO owning to a more concentrated/depleted GHGs level leaves little net signal as compensated by the effect coherent change of decaying/expanding ice sheets. They influence the ENSO variability through changes in annual cycle amplitude via a common nonlinear frequency entrainment mechanism while the GHGs effect might has an additional linear part. 25Clim. Past Discuss.,

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Highly Variable El Niño–Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

Cited by 428 publications

References 31 publications

Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China

Holocene ENSO-related cyclic storms recorded by magnetic minerals in speleothems of central China

Palaeoclimate reconstructions reveal a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific mean state

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of ENSO over the last 300,000 years in CCSM3

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