Higher Probability of Occurrence of Hotter and Shorter Heat Waves Followed by Heavy Rainfall

Abstract

Heat waves and heavy rainfall are regarded as two of the most frequent and widespread severe weather hazards (UNDRR & CRED, 2020;WEF, 2020). Heat waves are characterized by a period of abnormally high temperatures lasting three or more days, and heavy rainfall is a primary cause of flooding. Different from concurrent heat waves and droughts, heat waves and heavy rainfall are usually considered as isolated events, given that the two contrasting weather extremes seldom co-occur in the same place (Mukherjee & Mishra, 2021;Ridder et al., 2020). Nonetheless, there may be a lagged connection between heat waves and heavy rainfall in consideration of the interaction and mutual dependence between temperature and precipitation (Y.

Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

“…Extreme pluvial events and river floods are well‐studied at the global scale (Courty et al., 2019; Do et al., 2020; Kemter et al., 2020; Slater et al., 2021; Yin, Guo, Gentine, et al., 2021), but under climate change, a novel temporal cascade of flood‐related hazards has become increasingly apparent, where a flood closely follows a hot extreme, or vice versa. Such compound extremes are far more destructive than flooding alone (Cappucci, 2019; You & Wang, 2021; Zhang & Villarini, 2020). Scorching heat distresses both animals and plants, but may also set the stage for subsequent widespread thunderstorms and flash floods, leading to, e.g., livestock losses (Cowan et al., 2019).…”

“…In the first case, a flood is likely to be preceded by a hot extreme. Extreme heat forcing can enhance atmospheric instability and promote convective development, resulting in subsequent extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding (Fowler et al., 2021; You & Wang, 2021). Lagged connections between hot extremes and storms may also be driven by large‐scale thermodynamics, circulation shifts and land‐sea atmospheric feedbacks (Deng et al., 2020; Raghavendra et al., 2019).…”

A Vine Copula‐Based Polynomial Chaos Framework for Improving Multi‐Model Hydroclimatic Projections at a Multi‐Decadal Convection‐Permitting Scale

“…Thus, improving hydroclimatic projections plays a crucial role in supporting decision‐making by policymakers and stakeholders, also fostering actions to reduce potential risks and impacts on water resources under current and future climate conditions. Hydrologic prediction systems driven by regional climate models have been routinely used to assess future changes in catchment‐scale hydrologic regimes in a warming climate, which has attracted widespread attention from the hydroclimate community in recent years (Anghileri et al., 2016; Kurkute et al., 2020; Musselman et al., 2018; You & Wang, 2021).…”

Substantial Increase in Heavy Precipitation Events Preceded by Moist Heatwaves Over China During 1961–2019

“…Although changes in HWs and HP have been investigated individually at global and regional scales, few studies have focused on sequential heatwave-heavy precipitation (HWHP) events (i.e., an HP event occurring within several days after an HW event) (Lombardo and Ayyub, 2015;Zhang and Villarini, 2020;Chen et al, 2021;Liao et al, 2021;Wu et al, 2021;You and Wang, 2021;Gu et al, 2022;Ning et al, 2022). In the last decade, rare rainstorms tightly following the record-breaking HWs have been reported in some areas.…”

“…Given that both HWs and HP are becoming more extreme and more frequent, the increased risk of HW accompanied by HP is expected to rise. Thus, these HWHP events have been the topic of recent studies (Lombardo and Ayyub, 2015;Zhang and Villarini, 2020;Chen et al, 2021;Liao et al, 2021;Wu et al, 2021;You and Wang, 2021;Gu et al, 2022;Ning et al, 2022).…”