Higher education demand estimation & prediction by 2025 in Iran

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to predict the number of undergraduate applicants for the National Entrance Examination in Iran during 2012-2025 periods and to identity the factors affecting the demand for higher education in Iran. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the method of cohort, participation rate, structural regression and time series econometric models have been used. In the present study, it has been predicted by using four methods mentioned and at the next step, in addition to identifying effective factors, the results given from these four methods have been compared with each other. Furthermore, the most important factors influencing university enrollment decision have been identified by econometric method. Findings – The results of estimating the number of the criteria applicants, show that the tendency to pursue studies is different between males and females. Therefore, their structural models differ from each other. The results of forecast in structural method support the high effectiveness of economic growth index. Most predictions are often confirmed the reduction in the number of applicants during the 2012-2025 period, especially for men. Social implications – This paper can be helpful in opening up a discourse around cross-cultural elements in higher education demands and planning for higher education. Originality/value – It’s important to forecast the demand for higher education using different methods, and to compare the results for specific countries.

Predicting the Growth Trend of Demand for Distance Education in Iran: A Case Study of Payame Noor University

“…As the results show, economic and labor market factors have had a significant impact on the growth of enrollment in distance education in Iran. They are consistent with the results of research by Menon et al (2016), Custer et al (2016, Ghavidel et al (2015), Hartog and Serrano (2007), Christofides et al (2008), and Farajollahi et al (2018.…”

“…According to human capital theory, the demand for education depends on the cost/ benefit of higher education in the long run. Higher education enrollees are looking to earn more in the future than they do now (Ghavidel and Jahani, 2015).…”

“…The other half of the difference is parents' education, family background, and cognitive skills. Ghavidel et al (2015) stated that forecast results in the structural method show the greater effectiveness of economic growth indicators. Most forecasts show a decrease in registrants by 2025, especially for men in Iran.…”

The Role of Social Factors in Students’ Entry to Open and Distance Universities of Iran

“…There is also the risk of investment and the tendency of the community to invest in higher education. Therefore, those who predict the market, especially in education, will succeed in this area (2).…”

Modelo Estadístico Para La Proyección De Oferta De Educación Superior: 2015-2035

“…Para el modelo de proyección, estos autores utilizaron el método de cohort, regresión estructural y modelos de series de tiempo econométricos. Se puede verificar con los resultados que en Irán la selección de cursos de educación superior es diferente entre hombres y mujeres [25].…”