High resolution modeling of the regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand

Abstract

In the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado, surface irrigation provides most of the water required for agriculture. Consequently, the region's future could be significantly affected if climate change impacts the amount of water available for irrigation. A methodology to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in the region is described. The Integrated Decision Support Consumptive Use model, which accounts for spatial and temporal variability in evapotranspiration and precipitation, is used in conjunction with two climate scenarios from the VegetationEcosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. The two scenarios were extracted and scaled down from two general circulation models (GCMs), the HAD from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the CCC from the Canadian Climate Centre. The results show significant changes in the water demands of crops due to climate change. The HAD and CCC climate change scenarios both predict an increase in water demand. However, the projections of the two GCMs concerning the water available for irrigation differ significantly, reflecting the large degree of uncertainty concerning what the future impacts of climate change might be in the study region. As new or updated predictions become available, the methodology described here can be used to estimate the impacts of climate change.

Identifying the future water and salinity risks to irrigated viticulture in the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia

“…However, the information on the future irrigation requirements of viticulture and the magnitude of other related risks (salinity) in the soil is sparse. A number of modeling studies have attempted to evaluate the effects of climate change on water use in agriculture for other crops (Fischer et al, 2007;Elgaali et al, 2007;De Silva et al, 2007;Xiong et al, 2010;Gondim et al, 2012;Save et al, 2012;Lee and Huang, 2014;Woznicki et al, 2015). Most of these studies showed an increase in the irrigation demand for typical annual crops.…”

Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh

“…A number of works have been carried out to study the impact of climate change on irrigation water demand (Fischer et al 2006;Elgaali et al 2007;Yano et al 2007a;Rodriguez Diaz et al 2007;de Silva et al 2007). Elgaali et al (2007) modeled the regional impact of climate change on irrigation water demand in the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado.…”

“…Elgaali et al (2007) modeled the regional impact of climate change on irrigation water demand in the Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado. They assumed no change in crop phenology and found an overall increase in irrigation water demands due to climate change.…”

Model and Growth Stage Based Variability of the Irrigation Demand of Onion Crops with Predicted Climate Change

“…The review of published data of climate change impact on IWD reveals large variation between crops and growing regions [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. A global statement about climate change impact on agriculture is not possible and the insights gained cannot simply be assigned from one crop or region to another.…”