High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years

Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Ken Haste; Bigler, Matthias; Clausen, Henrik; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Fischer, Hubertus; Goto‐Azuma, Kumiko; Hansson, Margareta; Johnsen, S. J.; Jouzel, Jean; Masson‐Delmotte, Valérie; Popp, Trevor; Rasmussen, S. O.; Röthlisberger, Regine; Ruth, Urs; Stauffer, B.; Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L.; Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Árný E.; Svensson, Anders; White, James W. C.

doi:10.1126/science.1157707

Cited by 803 publications

(597 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…RAMPFIT has successfully been applied in previous studies for change-point detection in paleoclimatic time-series [64][65][66][67] . The simple ramp-function (three-phase) regression model assumes the existence of two distinct climate states, each of which is characterized by a constant parameter (here given by the SST of the cold glacial and the warm Holocene state), and a linear transition from one state to the other.…”

Section: Estimating the Timing Of Deglacial Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate

Mohtadi

Prange

Oppo

et al. 2014

Nature

243

228

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The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells 1-5 , but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.In the North Atlantic, the most recent glacial and deglacial periods are characterized by a series of abrupt and severe cold snaps of millennial duration associated with either iceberg instabilities and surges (Heinrich events) or freshwater input from the Arctic Ocean 6 (the Younger Dryas). These abrupt events are of particular interest because they were rapidly communicated through the ocean by a slowdown, or potentially a shutdown, of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 7 (AMOC) and through the atmospheric circulation 8 causing climate anomalies worldwide. Climate archives document a significant tropical hydrologic response to these events. Dry Younger Dryas and Heinrich stadials have been reported from various marine and terrestrial archives across the tropical Indian Ocean 4,9-14 .However, a few records suggest wet Younger Dryas or Heinrich stadials over northeast Australia 15 , southern Indonesia 5,16 and southeast Africa 12,17 . Although there seems to be strong evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moved southwards in the tropical Atlantic 2 , a wide range of mechanisms have been offered to explain the connection between the cooling of the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimates: a weakening of the rainfall system in response to regional sea surface cooling 13,14 ; and changes in the monsoon intensity 4,10,16 associated with a southward shift in the mean 1 or winter 4,5,15 position of the ITCZ or in the position of oceanic fronts 18 .How...

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Section: Estimating the Timing Of Deglacial Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate

Mohtadi

Prange

Oppo

et al. 2014

Nature

243

228

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“…2008), concomitant with the climatic fluctuations after the LGM (Steffensen et al. 2008; Marlon et al. 2009).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2009) during the last glacial–interglacial transition in North America stemming from abrupt temperature changes, in particular the cooling at the Younger Dryas (~12,900–11,700 ybp, Steffensen et al. 2008). We expect changes in the amount of suitable habitat to affect long‐term population size and genetic diversity of species that occur in obligate fire‐dependent habitats.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fluctuating fire regimes and their historical effects on genetic variation in an endangered shrubland specialist

Vázquez‐Miranda

Barr

Farquhar

et al. 2015

Ecology and Evolution

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The Pleistocene was characterized by worldwide shifts in community compositions. Some of these shifts were a result of changes in fire regimes, which influenced the distribution of species belonging to fire‐dependent communities. We studied an endangered juniper–oak shrubland specialist, the black‐capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla). This species was locally extirpated in parts of Texas and Oklahoma by the end of the 1980s as a result of habitat change and loss, predation, brood parasitism, and anthropogenic fire suppression. We sequenced multiple nuclear loci and used coalescence methods to obtain a deeper understanding of historical population trends than that typically available from microsatellites or mtDNA. We compared our estimated population history, a long‐term history of the fire regime and ecological niche models representing the mid‐Holocene, last glacial maximum, and last interglacial. Our Bayesian skyline plots showed a pattern of historical population fluctuation that was consistent with changing fire regimes. Genetic data suggest that the species is genetically unstructured, and that the current population should be orders of magnitude larger than it is at present. We suggest that fire suppression and habitat loss are primary factors contributing to the recent decline of the BCVI, although the role of climate change since the last glacial maximum is unclear at present.

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“…The Bølling and Allerød periods themselves were interspersed with cooling events, and ended with a more marked and rapid cooling into the Younger Dryas (12.8 ka). This cool interval persisted for over a thousand years before ending (11.5 ka) in a very abrupt warming event of *7°C in a few years (Steffensen et al 2008). This final warming into the Holocene may have involved passing a bifurcation in the climate system (Fig.…”

Section: Past Abrupt Climate Changes In the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…At the end of the last ice age, as the ice sheets in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres began to shrink, there was an abrupt warming (14.7 ka) into the Bølling-Allerød inter-stadial period (also known as DO event 1) (Steffensen et al 2008). This Bølling warming was most likely a large response to a fairly large triggering perturbation, which altered the Atlantic THC, coupled to the atmosphere and sea-ice (Weaver et al 2000;Liu et al 2009).…”

Section: Past Abrupt Climate Changes In the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

Lenton

2012

AMBIO

147

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There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

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High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years

Cited by 803 publications

References 35 publications

North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate

North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate

Fluctuating fire regimes and their historical effects on genetic variation in an endangered shrubland specialist

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

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