High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble
Marcus C. Sarofim,
Christopher J. Smith,
Parker Malek
et al.
Abstract:Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to… Show more
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