High-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Norwegian Earth System Model: the
                        effect of different initial conditions and of the ensemble size

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Grini, Alf; Caballero, Rodrigo; Hannachi, Abdel; Seland, Øyvind

doi:10.3402/tellusb.v67.26728

Cited by 43 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…This leads via the Bjerknes feedback [Bjerknes, 1969] to a reduction in the east-west temperature contrast across the tropical Pacific, thus favoring an El Niño-like anomaly. This mechanism is similar to what has been shown to occur after large high-latitude volcanic eruptions by Pausata et al [2015a]. The NH cooling is also associated to a decreased strength in the monsoon systems, especially the ISM, and a widespread reduction in the growing season in the NH, locally up to 2 months.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…The model has also been used to simulate the transport and removal of sulfate aerosols during high-latitude volcanic eruptions and has shown good performance in simulating the residence time of volcanic aerosols [Pausata et al, 2015a].…”

Section: Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The selected year is characterized by a neutral ENSO state to avoid possible ENSO imprint on the simulated climate anomalies associated with the nuclear war [Pausata et al, 2015a]. The choice of the detonation date (January 1st) is arbitrary and follows [Mills et al, 2014].…”

Section: Experiments Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

et al. 2016

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Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Climate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

et al. 2016

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“…The climate perturbation induced by the volcanic eruption (Δ v ) can be simply expressed as Δ v = STATE v -STATE nv , where STATE nv is the unperturbed climate state, and STATE v is the climate state induced by the eruption. To examine the short-term impact on ENSO, we analyze the simulations described by Pausata et al (18) in which ENS nv and ENS v are composed of 20 pairs of simulation, each pair being integrated for 4 y. Here, we extend 10 of these pairs of simulations out to 60 y after the eruption to investigate its long-term impact on the AMOC, OHC, and the spatiotemporal properties of ENSO.…”

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confidence: 99%

Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC

Pausata

Chafik

Caballero

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate, affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is roughly 2-3 y. Attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, whereas the long-term, ocean-mediated response has not been well studied. Most studies have focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts are thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global. No study to date has investigated the long-term effects of high-latitude eruptions. Here, we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere cause strong hemispheric cooling, which could induce an El Niño-like anomaly, in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 mo after the start of the eruption. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that favors the development of an El Niño-like anomaly. In the model used here, the specified high-latitude eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first 25 y after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 y. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).high-latitude volcanic eruptions | AMOC-ENSO interaction | volcanism P roxy data (1, 2) suggest that the strong reduction of surface insolation over the tropics associated with tropical volcanic eruptions may increase the likelihood of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a consequent reduction of the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Pacific. Modeling studies do not yield consistent results and show both an El Niño-like (3-5) or La Niña-like (6, 7) anomalies following a tropical eruption. Recent studies have also suggested that volcanic eruptions can have a large imprint on ocean circulation, affecting the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (8-12) on 5-to 20-y timescales and inducing ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies (13, 14) that may persist for decades. However, this slow recovery has been questioned and may be an artifact of experimental design (15). Furthermore, all previous work on the climate impact of volcanic eruptions has focused on tropical volcanoes; no studies have addressed the potential effects of high-latitude eruptions on ENSO. Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model 17)] to identify the mechanisms by which high-latitude volcanic eruptions can impact ENSO behavior in both the short term (up to 2-3 y) and long term (approximately half-century), the latter being mediated by volcano-induced changes in ocean circulation.We simulate an extreme high-latitude multistage eruption starting on June 1st. We inject 100 Tg of SO...

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“…2) strongly suggest dynamical differences between the two time periods, the limited size of our ensemble does not allow us to unequivocally rule out internal model variability. Therefore, a more thorough analysis of this aspect of the modelled response would require further simulations to produce a larger ensemble size (Pausata et al 2015;Bittner et al 2016). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%