High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn

Abstract

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state‐space models

“…If sufficient information exists about a system, a potentially better strategy is to fit system-specific, nonlinear, biologically explicit models in order to investigate the possibility of alternative states (e.g., Ives et al 2008, Schooler et al 2011). This typically requires time series that are rich in dynamical patterns taken from systems that are biologically well-understood.…”

Rapid contemporary evolution and clonal food web dynamics

“…Kendall et al 2005;Ives et al 2008), large-scale changes, such as consumer-resource cycles, are especially revealing about potential effects of rapid contemporary evolution. Several types of natural large-scale ecological dynamics have offered opportunities for studying rapid evolution in the wild, including invasions (e.g.…”

Importance of Riparian Zone: Effects of Resource Availability at Land-water Interface

“…In addition, anthropogenic disturbances, such as dredging, causing changes in the hydrology of lakes, may reduce algae and detritus inputs to midge habitats, and thus, leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations of midge populations. Consequently, the fish and bird populations that feed on midges were negatively influenced [159]. However, not only do subsidy flux is influenced by hydrology, riparian consumers are also driven by hydrological pressures of the stream because they are required to possess some specific traits.…”