Hierarchical Model of Multi-level Index to Assess Local Resilience Capability in COVID-19

Abstract

Background Globally, there have been 212,544,565 confirmed cases of Corona Virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including 4,441,428 deaths by 24 August 2021, reported to WHO. Facing the global pandemic of COVID-19, countries and regions have implemented different policies and taken different non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) according to their own circumstances. However, the quantitative assessment of national policies and local resilience capabilities is a huge challenge.MethodsIn order to assess interventions and improve local resilience from a comprehensive perspective, this study aims to establish a multi-dimensional and dynamic prevention and control system. The main body of the system is an index system. To make our evaluation system more scientific and useful, the comparative study with several widely used tools or lessons is conducted to report what they have done. Then analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to set up the framework under the concept of a multi-level strategy of public health management. Indicators in the system are determined by literature research and expert interviews.ResultsEmergency capability assessment includes building a well-established system, execution of the system, and measurement. The well-established system exhibits several characteristics: 1) considering indicators about whole-of-society involvement, including country-, city-, local community- and individual-level; 2) improving capability at multi-phases, from the preparedness ability to response ability; 3) at both policy level and implementation level. Categories of containment and closure, response in economic system, and response in public health system constitute the main body of the framework. The well-established system does not necessarily apply to all scenarios, and the actual situation should be taken into consideration in the process of implementation/execution. At the stage of measurement, the case of Wuhan/Hubei response is introduced to implement and test our system. Empirical researches will be conducted to verify the index system quantitatively in our future research. ConclusionsOur index system can assess national policies and capabilities quantitatively. When enough data are available, it will become a tool to assess the local resilience capability for countries or regions.