Hidden Costs of Blight and Arson in Detroit: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Devil's Night

Zahran, Sammy; Iverson, Terrence; McElmurry, Shawn P.; Weiler, Stephan; Levitt, Ryan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.009

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…For example, the Detroit, MI area contains one of the highest densities of geolocated NFIRS exposure fires examined. This high density could partly be due to abandoned structures in this area and "Let it Burn" policies implemented to focus scarce firefighter resources [32]. However, complete or incorrect reporting issues hinder statistical analysis of NFIRS exposure fires.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining Exposure Fires from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System between 2002 and 2020

McNamara,

Mell

2024

Fire

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Fires resulting from antecedent fires, known as exposure fires, can manifest across diverse environments, including suburban, urban, and rural areas. Notably, exposure fires represented by structure-destroying fires within the wildland–urban interface (WUI) can extend into non-WUI suburban and urban regions, presenting significant challenges. Leveraging data from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) spanning 2002 to 2020, this study investigates 131,739 exposure fire incidents impacting 348,089 features (incidents). We analyze reported economic costs, affected feature types, and property utilization patterns for these exposure fires. We also compare these exposure fires to information documented in other databases. Finally, we examine structure separation distance at residential dwellings and describe ignition pathways for selected fires. Reported property losses for some fire incidents amounted to USD 5,647,121,172, with content losses totaling USD 1,777,345,793. Prominent fire incident categories include buildings, vehicles, and natural vegetation fires, predominantly occurring in residential, outdoor, and storage areas. While the NFIRS lacked information on most major structure-destroying WUI fires, highlighting this analysis’s lack of statistical representation, it did provide insights into less extensive exposure fires, both WUI and non-WUI, unrecorded elsewhere. Our study reveals significant distinctions in the distribution of separation distances between damaged-to-damaged structures (average separation of 6.5 m) and damaged-to-not-damaged structures (average separation of 18.1 m). Notably, 84% of the incidents in exposure fires involved fire suppression defensive actions. These defensive actions contributed to the differences in structure separation distance distributions, highlighting the often-neglected role of these measures in assessing structure responses during WUI fires. We examined ignition pathways at select exposure fires, highlighting some common features involved in fire spread and challenges in documenting these pathways. Finally, we propose a set of idealized attributes for documenting exposure fires, accentuating the inherent difficulties in collecting such data across expansive geographical areas, particularly when striving for statistical representation. Our findings yield valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of exposure fires, informing future research and database development to aid in mitigating their impact on vulnerable communities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining Exposure Fires from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System between 2002 and 2020

McNamara,

Mell

2024

Fire

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…She uses data from Saginaw, Michigan, for 73 blocks from January 2008 to December 2009 and incorporates spillover effects into her research. These studies suggest that in areas where property blight is a problem, a cycle can emerge, leading to poverty, deteriorating neighborhoods, and decreasing property values (Zahran et al, 2019). However, it should be noted that both studies are cross‐sectional and conducted at the block level, which can obscure property level effects experienced by houses close to demolition.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of demolitions on neighboring property values in Detroit

Torrejón

Paredes

Skidmore

2023

Journal of Regional Science

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Urban blight is a complex problem that has been challenging for cities in the United States “Rust Belt” region for many decades. However, in the wake of the real estate and financial crisis, it is also a growing challenge for urban communities in many states such as California, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas. Detroit was particularly hit hard, where more than 40,000 blighted structures were identified in 2014. To curb blight, the city mobilized the most extensive demolition program in the country. Funded through the Federal Hardest Hit Fund (HHF), the Detroit Demolition Program began in 2014 and has demolished more than 20,800 properties at the cost of over $250 million. Furthermore, during 2009–2015, the city demolished 11,400 structures with hazardous materials such as asbestos. In this article, we assess the impacts of demolitions on the value of neighboring properties using a Repeat Sales (RS) regression approach. Specifically, we use housing sales price information from 2009 through 2019 to construct real estate price indices. We also rely on information from the 2009 Detroit Residential Survey to differentiate by dilapidation and blight levels before the start of the program. On average, blight removal through the demolition program does not appear to have been capitalized into the residential property prices. However, when considering the effect of ex‐ante program property characteristics, we find a modest positive effect of demolitions on property prices in areas with a low level of blight before the demolitions. Given the magnitude of the observed effect and the high costs associated with the demolition program, our results highlight the need for further research on alternative blight removal strategies that might provide a more cost‐effective solution to this urban challenge.

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“…burglary, assault, drug and homicide) or the nature of crime (Linton et al , 2014; Moreto et al , 2014; Barnum, Campbell et al , 2017; Zahnow, 2018). The interplay between the appropriate type of crime and research question is illustrated by research exploring whether abandoned buildings serve as drug-magnets, foster prostitution or are vulnerable to arson (Spelman, 1993; Frazier et al , 2013; Zahran et al , 2019). Despite the intuitive appeal of such approaches, some authors argue that aggregation of crime is not appropriate, depending on the geographic scale of inquiry (Andresen and Linning, 2012).…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Researchers have also noted that both individual property and neighborhood conditions – and combinations thereof – are factored into burglars’ target choices (Vandeviver and Bernasco, 2019). On the economic front, disadvantage, blight and deprivation have been identified as key drivers of criminal activity (Barnes and Jacobs, 2013; Chamberlain and Hipp, 2015; Quick et al , 2018; Valasik et al , 2019; Zahran et al , 2019). There is some evidence that neighborhood disadvantage, which exhibits a lack of community social capital, can elevate the extent to which individual or family status characteristics influence violence (Stacy De et al , 2006).…”

Section: Place-based Factors Affecting Crimementioning

confidence: 99%

Reframing the properties, places and crime paradigm: exploring spatiotemporal regime shifts

Delisle

Grissom²,

Never

2020

JERER

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore spatiotemporal factors that affect the empirical analysis of whether crime rates in buffer areas surrounding abandoned properties transferred to a Land Bank that differed among three regimes: before transfer, during Land Bank stewardship and after disposition and whether those differences were associated with differences in relative crime activity in the neighborhoods in which they were located. Design/methodology/approach This study analyzed crime incidents occurring between 2010 and 2018 in 0.1-mile buffer areas surrounding 31 abandoned properties sold by the Land Bank and their neighborhoods in which those properties were located. Using Copulas, researchers compared concordance/discordance in the buffer areas across the three regime states for each property and approximately matched time periods for associated neighborhoods. Findings In a substantial number of cases, the relative crime activity levels for buffer areas surrounding individual sold properties as measured by the Copulas shifted from concordant to discordant states and vice versa. Similarly, relative crime activity levels for neighborhoods shifted from concordant to discordant states across three matched regimes. In some cases, the property and neighborhood states matched, while in other cases they diverged. These cross-level interactions indicate that criminal behavioral patterns and target selection change over time and relative criminal activity. The introduction of Copulas can improve the reliability of such models over time and when and where they should be customized to add more granular insights needed by law enforcement agencies. Research limitations/implications The introduction of Copulas can improve the spatiotemporal reliability of the analysis of criminal activity over space and time. Practical implications Spatiotemporal considerations should be incorporated in setting interventions to manage criminal activity. Social implications This study provides support for policies supporting renovation of abandoned properties. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this research is the first application of Copulas to crime impact studies. As noted, Copulas can help reduce the risk of applying intervention or enforcement programs that are no longer reliable or lack the precision provided by insights into convergent/divergent patterns of criminal activity.

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Hidden Costs of Blight and Arson in Detroit: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Devil's Night

Cited by 5 publications

References 50 publications

Examining Exposure Fires from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System between 2002 and 2020

Examining Exposure Fires from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System between 2002 and 2020

Impact of demolitions on neighboring property values in Detroit

Reframing the properties, places and crime paradigm: exploring spatiotemporal regime shifts

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