Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian; Dingwell, Donald B.

doi:10.1038/srep13259

Cited by 105 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…Such acceleration precursors have been confirmed in the laboratory (Cornelius and Scott, 1993;Lavallée et al, 2008;Heap et al, 2009;Smith et al, 2009;Kilburn, 2012;Hao et al, 2014;Bell et al, 2011aBell et al, , 2011bVasseur et al, 2015). To provide insights into the accelerating behavior near the failure point, damage models have been developed to explain accelerating seismicity or deformation rates prior to rock failure (Main, 1999), volcanic eruptions (Kilburn and Petley, 2003), and landslides (Helmstetter et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions

Hao

Yang

Elsworth³

2017

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions

Hao

Yang

Elsworth³

2017

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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“…Therefore, viscoelastic magma fracturing in the high Deborah number regime appears to be a consistent model for the source mechanics of low-frequency volcano seismicity, often used for eruption forecasting. Vasseur et al (2015) showed that the forecastability of full sample rupture scales with the heterogeneity of the system-cast most simply as a porosity (Fig. 5).…”

Section: Laboratory-scale Unrest Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1, is that the peak stress supported by a liquid r m can be predicted as a Error on magma failure forecast Sintered glass beads; Vasseur et al, 2015;2017 Welded volcanic debris; Vasseur et al, 2017 Fig. 5 In the high-De regime, the error on a prediction of failure times scales with the porosity of the material such that low porosity magmas are unpredictable and high porosity magmas are predictable (Vasseur et al 2015).…”

Section: Laboratory-scale Unrest Signalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Does Magma Break?

Wadsworth¹,

Witcher²,

Vasseur³

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Geophysical signals arriving at the Earth's surface originate from a source mechanism at depth but are not necessarily directly observable. Therefore, well-posed experiments can provide insights into source mechanics and, importantly, the parameters required to model aspects of the sources of unrest signals. In this Chapter we detail one such example of how experimental laboratory work has improved our understanding of unrest signals. We focus on the failure of single-and multi-phase magmas, demonstrating that the liquid viscosity, and therefore the temperature and volatile content of a magma of a given composition, is the limiting parameter in determining whether a magma will ascend viscously or whether it can fracture during ascent. This critical threshold is characterized by a Deborah number, the ratio of the timescale of relaxation to the timescale of local flow. We show that for single-phase magmatic liquids and for vigorously vesiculating magmas, a local Deborah number of 10 À2 is the limit above which mixed viscoelastic behaviour including fracture propagation can be expected, and a Deborah number of 1 is the limit above which magma is dominantly elastic and responds in a brittle manner to applied stresses. These thresholds can be understood in terms of the onset and peak of the Debye relaxation process for viscoelastic liquids. The apparent validity of a Maxwell model permits us to predict the maximum stress that can be supported by a volcanic liquid deforming in the high Deborah number range. We use these constraints to provide a map of timescales on which we contour dominant system responses from viscous to purely brittle; valid for all magmatic liquids. Finally, we explore the scaling necessary to extend these conceptual insights to crystal-and bubble-bearing magmas valid under specific conditions. The competing timescales of deformation and relaxation in magma are relevant to unrest source mechanisms that originate from magma deformation, such as long-period seismic signals that are used to predict eruption timing. KeywordsRheology Á Strain rate Á Experimental volcanology Á Glass transition Á Failure forecasting Á Low frequency earthquakes Á Viscous dissipation Glossary RheologyThe study of the response of a material to an applied stress or deformation. In the volcano-sciences this typically refers to magma-rheology which is dominated by the rheology of the liquid phase (a viscous or viscoelastic melt) and the additional effect of suspended phases (crystals and gases). Viscoelasticity A material response to an applied stress in which both elastic and viscous components of the deformation are observed. In magma, as the temperature decreases or the local strain rate increases, the elastic component becomes more dominant. When the viscous component is negligible, purely elastic behaviour and material-rupture can readily occur. See Rheology.

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“…Recently, it has been shown for the compressive failure of porous materials that the amount of structural disorder is crucial for forecasting the global failure, i.e. the higher the disorder is the more intensive precursory activity is obtained, which improves the precision of forecasting [9].…”

Section: J Stat Mech (2016) 073211mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fractal frontiers of bursts and cracks in a fiber bundle model of creep rupture

2015

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Abstract.We investigate the eect of the amount of disorder on the fracture process of heterogeneous materials in the framework of a fiber bundle model. The limit of high disorder is realized by introducing a power law distribution of fiber strength over an infinite range. We show that on decreasing the amount of disorder by controlling the exponent of the power law the system undergoes a transition from the quasi-brittle phase where fracture proceeds in bursts to the phase of perfectly brittle failure where the first fiber breaking triggers a catastrophic collapse. For equal load sharing in the quasi-brittle phase the fat tailed disorder distribution gives rise to a homogeneous fracture process where the sequence of breaking bursts does not show any acceleration as the load increases quasi-statically. The size of bursts is power law distributed with an exponent smaller than the usual mean field exponent of fiber bundles. We demonstrate by means of analytical and numerical calculations that the quasi-brittle to brittle transition is analogous to continuous phase transitions and determine the corresponding critical exponents. When the load sharing is localized to nearest neighbor intact fibers the overall characteristics of the failure process prove to be the same, however, with dierent critical exponents. We show that in the limit of the highest disorder considered the spatial structure of damage is identical with site percolation-however, approaching the critical point of perfect brittleness spatial correlations play an increasing role, which results in a dierent cluster structure of failed elements.

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Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

Cited by 105 publications

References 32 publications

An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions

An accelerating precursor to predict “time-to-failure” in creep and volcanic eruptions

When Does Magma Break?

Fractal frontiers of bursts and cracks in a fiber bundle model of creep rupture

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