Heterogeneity of On-Road Traffic Emissions in Norway: A Model for Transition

Abstract

The way Norway is spearheading electrification in the transport sector is of global interest, and details of its policies and emission impacts represent a reference. We used the NERVE model, a bottom-up high-resolution traffic emission model, to calculate all exhaust emissions in Norway (2009-2020). This allows us to evaluate the co-benefit of policies to target climate change mitigation and air quality. We have analyzed local municipal data with regards to traffic growth, road network influences, vehicle composition, emissions and energy consumption. Light vehicle CO2 emissions per kilometre have been reduced by 22% since 2009, mainly driven by an increaseing bio-fuel mixing and BEV share. BEVs are mostly located in and around the main cities, areas with young vehicle fleets, and strong local incentives. Beneficiaries of all BEVs incentives have been a subset of the population with strong economic indicators. The incentivized growth in the share of diesel-fuelled passenger vehicle has been turned, and together with Euro6 emission standards, light vehicle NOx emissions have been halved since peaking in 2014. BEV represent an investment in emission reductions in years to come and current sales set up for an accelerated decline in emissions despite growth in traffic.