Heterogeneity in Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Their Associations with Mortality in Old Age: A Literature Review

Abstract

This article reviewed studies to investigate the association between trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and mortality among older adults. Investigators conducted a systematic search of published peer-reviewed literature in the PubMed database, and three articles that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the review were identified. All of these studies used group-based trajectory models to identify distinct BMI trajectories. Two studies were derived from the U.S. and used data from the Health and Retirement Study, with up to nine repeated observations. Most of the BMI trajectories in older Americans were increasing and fell primarily within the overweight and obese ranges. The other study was from Japan and used nationwide data, with up to seven repeated observations. BMI trajectories identified in the older Japanese were mostly decreasing and fell primarily within the normal weight range. Although the distribution of BMI trajectories was different between the two nations, the findings from these three studies consistently demonstrated that people with stable overweight trajectories had the lowest all-cause mortality rates in both countries. Beyond this, however, these studies suggested that priorities for weight control in old age should likely differ between Western and non-Western countries. Research regarding BMI trajectories and mortality in old age is very limited at present. Evidence from countries other than the U.S. and Japan is warranted in order to validate current findings and guide the development of local clinical and public health strategies for body weight management aimed at improving the health and survival of older adults.

Prepregnancy weight change associated with high gestational weight gain

“…Our study demonstrates that prepregnancy weight gain is associated with high GWG, which aligns with evidence that weight changes track, on average, within individuals over time including, as we report, during pregnancy (54,55). Our study confirms the excess risk of high GWG among women with overweight or obesity, and there was evidence that higher prepregnancy weight gain is associated with higher GWG evaluated on a continuous scale.…”

Distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index and diabetes risk: A 5‐year longitudinal study of Chinese adults

“…This method assumes that individual differences in trajectories can be summarized by a finite set of different polynomial functions of time. In the past years, this method has been successfully used to examine the association between BMI trajectories and the risk of hypertension, cancer and all‐cause mortality. However, to date, just a few studies have explored the association between BMI trajectories identified by GBTM and diabetes risk.…”

Body mass index trajectories during mid to late life and risks of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes: Results from four prospective cohorts

“…However, most of these studies were grouping people using growth curve model or group-based latent model [ 11 , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] , [28] , [29] ]. Using the above models, one can identify individuals with distinct BMI trajectories from the available data [ 25 , 48 ]. However, class membership is not determined with certainty for each individual since it relies on the selected models (linear, curvilinear, cubic and other forms) and probability of belonging [ 20 , 49 ].…”