Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram

Bhambri, Rakesh; Bolch, Tobias; Kawishwar, Prashant; Dobhal, D. P.; Srivastava, Deepak; Pratap, Bhanu

doi:10.5194/tc-7-1385-2013

Cited by 168 publications

(151 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(91 reference statements)

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“…Worth noting fact is that substantial reduction in the glacier melt, aside changes in precipitation that are also positive, indicates a positive change in the frozen water resources of the UIB. Such finding is largely consistent with the prevailing changes depicted from the long-term observed streamflow record ( Figure 5) and with the reports of anomalously positive or stable glacial mass balances and extents [20,22,[27][28][29]31,[33][34][35], increasing snow covers and falling end-of-summer regional snow line altitudes [20,22,25,26], and subsequent reduction in the melt season discharges [4,19]. On the other hand, a decrease in the glacier melt and in the overall discharge is in direct contrast to the reports from earlier studies, which addressing only partially the climatic uncertainty over the UIB assess its future water availability under warmer climates [5][6][7][8]90], and suggest rather enhanced glacial melt and rise in the water availability throughout the 21st century.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In contrast, the geodetic mass balance analysis over the same study zone but over a longer period (2000-2010) revealed a slightly positive mass balance for the eastern Karakoram glaciers [33]. Furthermore, the areal extent of the eastern Karakoram glaciers has been reported to be growing since the end of 1980s [29]. A significant falling trend of the end-of-summer regional snow line altitude for the eastern Karakoram over the period 2000-2012 also indicates a positive change in the high-altitude frozen water resources therein [25].…”

Section: Prevailing Hydro-cryo-climatic Changesmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…Thus, it is important to incorporate changes in the future cryosphere that are plausible under anticipated climate change scenario, while assessing the future water availability from a glacerized basin. Since the overall glacial extent of the UIB somewhat remained stagnant since 1980s [28][29][30]65] and particularly since early 21st century [20,22] under the ongoing regional warming, no change in the present-day glacial extent has been assumed for the near-future scenario (2013-2030), as also adopted by several studies [5,9,11] (Table 2). In view of obtaining a far-future climate change scenario, projections for an extreme emissions scenario of RCP 8.5 are considered for the last decade of the 21st century.…”

Section: Near-future Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

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Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected-though likely but contrasting-climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future) climate change scenarios-consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns-in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Prevailing Hydro-cryo-climatic Changesmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Near-future Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

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“…To summarize, the uncertainty of the glacier mass balance derived from the DEM differencing method is acceptable for glacier change monitoring over periods of decades. Bhambri and others (2013) reported an area change rate of −0.01% a −1 for the upper Shyok valley (eastern Karakoram), covering an area of 2977.9 km 2 . This .…”

Section: Internal Consistency Checkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Indian summer monsoon also has a small impact on the eastern margins of the Karakoram region (Bhambri and others, 2013). Furthermore, the jet stream plays an important role in adjusting the precipitation in the vertical direction (Hewitt, 2005;Mayer and others, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Slight glacier mass loss in the Karakoram region during the 1970s to 2000 revealed by KH-9 images and SRTM DEM

Zhou

2017

J. Glaciol.

100

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ABSTRACT. An anomalously slight glacier mass gain during 2000 to the 2010s has recently been reported in the Karakoram region. However, to date, no investigations of the region-wide glacier mass balance in the Karakoram prior to 2000 have been reported, leaving a knowledge gap for assessing glacier responses to climate change. We calculated elevation and mass change using DEMs generated from KH-9 images acquired during 1973-1980 and the 1 arc-second SRTM DEM. We find a slight mass loss of −0.09 ± 0.03 m w.e. a −1 (12 366 km 2 ) for 1973-2000, which is less negative than the global average rate for 1971-2009 (−0.31 ± 0.19 m w.e. a −1 ). Within the Karakoram, the glacier change patterns are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. In particular, a nearly stable state in the central Karakoram (−0.04 ± 0.05 m w.e. a −1 during the period implies that the Karakoram anomaly dates back to the 1970s. Combined with the previous studies, we conclude that the Karakoram glaciers as a whole were in a nearly balanced state during the 1970s to the 2010s.

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Heterogeneity in Karakoram glacier surges

et al. 2015

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Many Karakoram glaciers periodically undergo surges during which large volumes of ice and debris are rapidly transported downglacier, usually at a rate of 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than during quiescence. Here we identify eight recent surges in the region and map their surface velocities using cross-correlation feature tracking on optical satellite imagery. In total, we present 44 surface velocity data sets, which show that Karakoram surges are generally short-lived, lasting between 3 and 5 years in most cases, and have rapid buildup and relaxation phases, often lasting less than a year. Peak velocities of up to 2 km a À1 are reached during summer months, and the surges tend to diminish during winter months. Otherwise, they do not follow a clearly identifiable pattern. In two of the surges, the peak velocity travels down-ice through time as a wave, which we interpret as a surge front. Three other surges are characterized by high velocities that occur simultaneously across the entire glacier surface, and acceleration and deceleration are close to monotonic. There is also no consistent seasonal control on surge initiation or termination. We suggest that the differing styles of surge can be partly accounted for by individual glacier configurations and that while some characteristics of Karakoram surges are akin to thermally controlled surges elsewhere (e.g., Svalbard), the dominant surge mechanism remains unclear. We thus propose that these surges represent a spectrum of flow instabilities and the processes controlling their evolution may vary on a glacier by glacier basis.

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Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram

Abstract: Abstract. Glaciers in the Karakoram

Cited by 168 publications

References 54 publications

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Slight glacier mass loss in the Karakoram region during the 1970s to 2000 revealed by KH-9 images and SRTM DEM

Heterogeneity in Karakoram glacier surges

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