HESS Opinions: The Myth of Groundwater Sustainability in Asia

Abstract

Across the arid regions of water-stressed countries of Asia, groundwater production for irrigated agriculture has led to water level declines that continue to worsen. For India, China, Pakistan, Iran and others, it is unrealistic to expect groundwater sustainability in a technical sense to emerge. With business as usual, groundwater-related problems receive 10 insufficient attention, a situation referred to as an "accelerating and invisible groundwater crisis" (Biswas et al., 2017).Another obstacle to sustainability comes from trying to manage something you do not understand. With sustainable management, there are significant burdens in needed technical and socioeconomic knowhow, in collecting necessary data, and in implementing advanced technologies. A pragmatic research agenda for groundwater sustainability should recognize that a common threat to long-term sustainability could occur not just from over-pumping but widespread groundwater 15 contamination. If groundwater sustainability is truly unachievable, then research is needed in facilitating adaption to the worst outcomes (Siegel et al., 2019). In hoping for the best outcomes, it is prudent to plan for the worst.surface water systems Sophocleous, 1997) and a groundwater supply that is impaired because of contamination.By rights, Asia should be far along towards groundwater sustainability. Earlier studies pointed out problems and posited solutions. For example, in 2000, the World Bank formed the Groundwater Management Advisory Team (GW-MATE). Over the next decade, team members worked in Asia and elsewhere on groundwater-related issues and sustainable groundwater 35 use. Their reports identified seriously impacted groundwater systems and provided practical approaches towards sustainability. Few Signs of Progress and Worsening TrendsIn China, India, Pakistan and other hotspots (Figure 1), groundwater continues to be impacted by groundwater depletion and 40 contamination. China's most visible groundwater problem is associated with the over-production of groundwater from aquifers underlying the core of the North China Plain (Figure 2a). Groundwater withdrawals since 1960 have produced excessive drawdowns that began to receive attention about 15 years ago. Water-level declines of > 20 m were evident in the shallow unconfined aquifer and > 40 m in the deep freshwater aquifer (Foster and Garduno, 2004). Estimated reductions in groundwater storage were of the order of -8.8 km 3 yr -1 . By about 2010, drawdowns as high as ~60 m were reported in the 45 unconfined aquifer (Cao et al., 2012) and >80 m in the deep freshwater aquifer (Zheng et al., 2010) (Figure 2a). The aquifers of the North China Plains are essential to wheat production, to maintaining socio-economic contributions associated with the agricultural economy, and in supplying water to cities (e.g., Beijing and Baoding) (Foster and Garduno, 2012). However, continuing water-level declines indicate limited progress towards sustainability. A recent assessment using GRACE (Feng et al., 2018) indicates almost co...