HESS Opinions: "Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability"

Abstract

Abstract. Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the "symptom", i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the "illness", i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power) to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources), to biofuel production (irrigation). The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.Correspondence to: D. Koutsoyiannis (dk@itia.ntua.gr) Only the small secrets need to be protected. The big ones are kept secret by public incredulity. (attributed to Marshall McLuhan) Climate and climate change impactsSince 1990, major funds of the order of billions of euro have been spent in Europe and worldwide on research into projected climate change, its impacts, and emerging vulnerabilities. Earth sciences including climatology and hydrology have played a central role in this scene and benefited significantly. Technological advances in satellite observations and supercomputing have also been beneficial to these scientific disciplines. On the other hand, scientific progress has been arguably incommensurate to the effort and funds spent, perhaps because these disciplines have been perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. Despite generous funds, the targets set have not been achieved. Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades (Roe and Baker, 2007). The value added by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4; IPCC, 2007) to that of the Third Assessment Report (TAR; IPCC, 2001) is, in effect, marginal. According to IPCC AR4, "A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections compared wit...

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

“…The effect of human activities on the water cycle is deepening and widening rapidly across the planet, driven by increased demands for energy (King and Webber, 2008;Koutsoyiannis et al, 2009), water (Jackson et al, 2001), food (Vörösmarty et al, 2001) and living space (Zhao et al, 2001), and the unintended consequences and secondary effects of land use and climate change. Cumulatively, these demands result in increased human appropriation of water resources, significant modification of landscapes, and a strong human imprint on water cycle dynamics from local to global scales (Carpenter et al, 2011;Falkenmark and Lannerstad, 2005;Röckstrom et al, 2009;Vörösmarty et al, 2010).…”

Irrigation enhances precipitation at the mountains downwind

“…In this regard, it is relevant to point that we have obtained mean variations of rainfall (both P and r) in MSs that are proportional to the mean annual water volume applied in the neighbouring upwind irrigation lands. This result might help to reduce the modelling uncertainty in the simulated strength of the irrigation-rainfall feedback , and lends support to climate models, whose credibility is a controversial issue in itself (Koutsoyiannis et al, 2009).…”

Models, the Establishment, and the Real World: Why Do So Many Flood Problems Remain in the UK?

“…The use of telemetered rainfall has been in use for decades [18], and it is significant that some staff of climate change on future flooding will be difficult to prove, especially in view of the recent slow down of global temperature rise [19]. The call for more research when the solution to many flood problems is clear suggests that the study of floods has become a grow industry in itself as described by Whitmarsh [20].…”