Herd dynamics and management strategies for small-scale milk production systems in Southeast Brazil

Brockington, N.R.; Veil, J.M.; Zoccal, R.

doi:10.1016/0308-521x(92)90108-z

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The milk supply model of Bozic et al (2012) indicated that long-term price changes come from changes in herd structure, while short-term price volatility arises based on cow productivity. Although more investigation is needed, we can hypothesize that the long-term oscillatory behavior pattern of milk price in Brazil could be driven partially by the dairy herd aging-chain and the farmers' decision about holding or sending heifers and cows to slaughter (Brockington et al, 1992;Bragança and Bueno, 2010). The short-term cycle is probably influenced by the 12-month seasonal pattern but also by the feed strategy of farmers and the milk production system response.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Industries with significant delays on biological cycles or time required to build/expand plants have strong cycle dynamics suggesting that oscillations arise endogenously (Meadows, 1970;Sterman, 2000;Guimarães et al, 2009). In contrast, few studies have addressed the pattern of long-term oscillations in production and prices in the dairy industry (Brockington et al, 1992;Nicholson and Stephenson, 2015). Identification of random shocks on time series of milk prices is also relevant to understand price behavior.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020

Simões¹,

Nicholson²,

Carvalho³

2023

Revista Brasileira De Zootecnia

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The objective of this study was to assess behavior patterns in Brazilian farm milk prices. We employed a structural time series techniques model, the Unobserved Component Model (UCM), which is part of the family of State Space models, to assess the trend, seasonality, cyclical behavior, and impacts of exogenous regressors on aggregated farm milk price behavior in Brazil from January 2005 to December 2019. We tested five alternative models with different regressors using the monthly national average prices of milk paid to farmers. The fit of the models was assessed with Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. Predictions were assessed by the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy. Trends, seasonality, and two cycles were statistically significant, with the trend and long-period cycle contributing the most to price variation. Exogenous factors such as feed cost and international dairy product prices also had significant positive effects on the level of Brazil's farm milk prices. All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, which may indicate their usefulness for price forecasting and policy formulation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020

Simões¹,

Nicholson²,

Carvalho³

2023

Revista Brasileira De Zootecnia

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“…In dairies, whose production processes a wide variety of products that may generate intermediate products, such as cream and whey, which are raw materials for other products, optimization techniques have already been efficiently deployed (Banaszewska et al, 2013;Geary et al, 2010a;Geary et al, 2010b;Geary et al, 2012;Guan and Philpott, 2011;Milad and Faezeh, 2012). This optimization relies heavily on the production process, together with marketing and management of raw materials -raw milk which is considered a constraint, because of its irregular availability throughout the year given the seasonality of its production (Banaszewska et al, 2013;Brockington et al, 1992;Geary et al, 2012;Roma et al, 2009). Table 7 -Relationship between the UCM and the required quantities of raw materials (raw milk volume and its components) of dairy products in daily scenarios of high (January) and low (July) raw milk supplies.…”

Section: Dairy Product Mixes and Total Contribution Marginsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How can dairies maximize their profits and properly remunerate their dairy farmers?

Meneghini

Cassoli

Filho

et al. 2016

Sci. agric. (Piracicaba, Braz.)

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The current pricing process of raw milk in Brazil discourages producers from improving milk composition, which affects both yield and quality of dairy products. Furthermore, small and medium-sized dairies face great difficulties when it comes to planning production. Thus, a linear programming model was developed to price the raw milk and determine the optimal mix (combination of quantities) of dairy products that maximizes total contribution margin (TCM) under daily scenarios of high (January) and low (July) raw milk supplies (summer and winter, respectively) by comparing optimal solutions with actual results. The TCM of optimal and actual mixes were higher in January due to the greater availability of raw material. Packaging was a limiting factor in the production of cheese in optimal mixes. The relationship between unit contribution margin (UCM) and the required amount of raw materials per product unit and resource availability is crucial to defining the mix of dairy products and TCM of the dairy. Casein and raw milk volume showed shadow prices. Under both scenarios, the calculated prices of raw milk were higher than the prices charged by the dairy and were higher in January. The proposed model remunerates the producers based on the quantity and quality of raw milk. The dairy can maximize its TCM by better planning its mix of products with the use of linear programming.

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“…12 Both native and improved pasture are common in the upper zone; in middle zone 1, however, native pasture dominates. Although the use of improved pasture has been shown to allow gains in herd size and production per cow (Brockington et al, 1992), due to the costs of labor, seed and fertilizer, cultivation of improved pasture involves a greater investment for the producer. Because the nutritional content of both native and improved pasture varies between seasons and between years, average levels of nutritional content are calculated and used as technical coefficients in the model.…”

Section: Development Of Model Technical Coefficientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving efficiency and equity in irrigation management: an optimization model of the El Angel watershed, Carchi, Ecuador

Evans

Lee

Boisvert

2003

Agricultural Systems

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The objective of this paper is to address the problems of inefficiency and inequity in water allocation in the El Angel watershed, located in Ecuador's Sierra region. Water is captured in a high-altitude region of the watershed and distributed downstream to producers in four elevation-defined zones via a system of canals. Upstream and downstream producers face radically different conditions with respect to climate and terrain. A mathematical programming model was created to study the consequences of addressing chronic water scarcity problems in the watershed by shifting water resources between the four zones. The model captures the nature of water use by humans, crops and dual purpose cattle. Its objective function maximizes producer welfare as measured by aggregate gross margin, subject to limited supplies of land, labor and water. Five water allocation scenarios are evaluated with respect to efficiency in land and water use and equity in income distribution. Results reveal that although water is the primary constrained resource downstream, in the upstream zones, land is far more scarce. The current distribution of water rights does not consider these differences and therefore is neither efficient nor equitable. Improvements in efficiency (resource use) and equity (income distribution) are associated with (1) a shift of water to the lower zone, and (2) the use of lower levels of irrigation intensity upstream. Furthermore, the scenarios that result in the most efficient use of resources also bring the greatest degree of equity in income distribution, indicating that these may be complementary, not conflicting, goals.

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Herd dynamics and management strategies for small-scale milk production systems in Southeast Brazil

Cited by 6 publications

References 8 publications

Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020

Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020

How can dairies maximize their profits and properly remunerate their dairy farmers?

Achieving efficiency and equity in irrigation management: an optimization model of the El Angel watershed, Carchi, Ecuador

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