Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: Comparison of Numerical Wsa-Enlil+cone Model and Analytical Drag-Based Model

Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Žic, Tomislav; Taktakishvili, A.; Dumbović, Mateja; Möstl, Christian; Veronig, Astrid; Mays, M. L.; Odstrčil, D.

doi:10.1088/0067-0049/213/2/21

Cited by 93 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Millward et al (2013) utilised the cone model to obtain the CME parameters to be used as input in the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to forecast the arrivals. They applied their numerical model to a sample of 25 CMEs and found a mean error of around 7.5 h. Similar results are obtained by Vršnak et al (2014) with the WSAENLIL+Cone model and the analytical drag-based model. The same numerical model was applied by Mays et al (2015) to a sample of 17 events, where a mean error of about 12 h was found.…”

Section: Comparison Of Radiative Proxies With Other Tools Of Icme Arrsupporting

confidence: 63%

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Matamoros

Klein

Trottet

2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The propagation of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to the Earth takes between about 15 h and several days. We explore whether observations of non-thermal microwave bursts, produced by near-relativistic electons via the gyrosynchrotron process, can be used to predict travel times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth. In a first step, a relationship is established between the CME speed measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SoHO/LASCO) near the solar limb and the fluence of the microwave burst. This relationship is then employed to estimate speeds in the corona of earthward-propagating CMEs. These speeds are fed into a simple empirical interplanetary acceleration model to predict the speed and arrival time of the ICMEs at Earth. The predictions are compared with observed arrival times and with the predictions based on other proxies, including soft X-rays (SXR) and coronographic measurements. We found that CME speeds estimated from microwaves and SXR predict the ICME arrival at the Earth with absolute errors of 11 ± 7 and 9 ± 7 h, respectively. A trend to underestimate the interplanetary travel times of ICMEs was noted for both techniques. This is consistent with the fact that in most cases of our test sample, ICMEs are detected on their flanks. Although this preliminary validation was carried out on a rather small sample of events (11), we conclude that microwave proxies can provide early estimates of ICME arrivals and ICME speeds in the interplanetary space. This method is limited by the fact that not all CMEs are accompanied by non-thermal microwave bursts. But its usefulness is enhanced by the relatively simple observational setup and the observation from ground, which makes the instrumentation less vulnerable to space weather hazards.

show abstract

Section: Comparison Of Radiative Proxies With Other Tools Of Icme Arrsupporting

confidence: 63%

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Matamoros

Klein

Trottet

2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This preconditioning of interplanetary space by a previous CME was first proposed, before the discovery of CMEs, by Caroubalos (1964) who stated that a disturbance following a preceding disturbance encounters much more regular conditions than the first. This result corresponds to the effect of CMEs on the structure of the ambient magnetic field and solar wind flow which in turn controls the propagation behavior of trailing CMEs as discussed in a number of publications (Vršnak and Žic, 2007;Gopalswamy, 2008;Baker et al, 2013;Vršnak et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2014;Temmer and Nitta, 2015). The basic argument, in all cases, is that a CME may be subject to a minimal slow down in the wake of a preceding CME, as it encounters a preconditioned region of depleted ambient plasma density and almost radial magnetic field lines; within this region a reduced aerodynamic drag is expected.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Interplanetary Type IV Bursts

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We study the characteristics of moving type IV radio bursts which extend to the hectometric wavelengths (interplanetary type IV or type IV IP bursts) and their relationship with energetic phenomena on the Sun. Our dataset comprises 48 interplanetary type IV bursts observed with the Radio and Plasma Wave Investigation (WAVES) instrument onboard Wind in the 13.825 MHz-20 kHz frequency range. The dynamic spectra of the Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN), the Nançay Decametric Array (DAM), the Appareil de Routine pour le Traitement et l' Enregistrement Magnetique de l' Information Spectral (ARTEMIS-IV), the Culgoora, Hiraiso and Izmiran Radio Spectrographs were used to track the evolution of the events in the low corona. These were supplemented with soft X-ray (SXR) flux-measurements from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and coronal mass ejections (CME) data from the Large Angle and Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Positional information of the coronal bursts was obtained by the Nançay radioheliograph (NRH). We examined the relationship of the type IV events with coronal radio bursts, CMEs and SXR flares. The majority of the events (45) were characterized as compact; their duration was on average 106 minutes. This type of events was, mostly, associated with M-and X-class flares (40 out of 45) and fast CMEs; 32 of these events had CMEs faster than 1000 km s −1 . Furthermore, in 43 compact events the CME was, possibly, subjected to reduced aerodynamic drag as it was propagating in the wake of a previous CME. A minority (three) of long lived type IV IP bursts was detected, with duration from 960 minutes to 115 hours. These events are referred to as extended or long duration and appear to replenish their energetic electron content, possibly from electrons escaping from the corresponding coronal type IV bursts. The latter were found to persist on the disk, for tens of hours to days. Prominent among them was the unusual interplanetary type IV burst of 18-23 May 2002, which is the longest event in the Wind /WAVES catalog. The three extended events were, usually, accompanied by a number of flares, of GOES class C in their majority, and of CMEs, many of which were slow and narrow.

show abstract

“…Another approach is represented by numerical MHD-based models of the heliospheric propagation of ICME, generally requiring a detailed knowledge of the state of the heliosphere and large computational facilities (as is the case for the WSA-ENLIL model Odstrcil and Pizzo, 1999;Odstrcil et al, 2004;Owens et al, 2005;Parsons et al, 2011). The numerical models are fairly accurate (Vr snak et al, 2014), and highly sensitive to the quality of the input parameters (Falkenberg et al, 2010b), as one may expect. Recently, the WSA-ENLIL model started to be employed also in a probabilistic approach Mays et al, 2015;Pizzo et al, 2015) to quantify the prediction uncertainties and to determine the forecast confidence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…To perform a correct validation of the CME transit time forecast, we want to consider the arrival of the ICME leading edge, instead of that of the shock (see also the discussion in Schwenn et al, 2005;Vr snak et al, 2014). To this purpose, for each event, we checked for the ToA of a plasma driven effect (Magnetic clouds or Ejecta), as reported in the GMU CME/ ICME list compiled by Phillip Hess and Jie Zhang (http://solar.…”

Section: P-dbm Step-by-stepmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic approach to the drag-based model

Napoletano

Forte

Moro

et al. 2018

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

-The forecast of the time of arrival (ToA) of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the ToA using the drag-based model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 9.1h, and half of these residuals are within the estimated errors. These results suggest that this approach deserves further investigation. We are working to realize a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach.

show abstract

Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: Comparison of Numerical Wsa-Enlil+cone Model and Analytical Drag-Based Model

Cited by 93 publications

References 33 publications

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Interplanetary Type IV Bursts

A probabilistic approach to the drag-based model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About