Heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation: a transfer entropy application showcase

Krug, Amelie; Pothapakula, Praveen Kumar; Primo, Cristina; Ahrens, Bodo

doi:10.1127/metz/2021/1071

Cited by 5 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We noticed a significant amount of information exchange between the NWMS's evaporation (and also Adriatic Sea for Odra catchment) and the Vb-cyclone precipitation in the evaluation simulation for all the catchments. This result is in line with the findings of Krug et al (2021) concluding significant information exchange between the NWMS and the Odra catchments for all the detected Vb-cyclones from 1901-2010. However, the historical simulation does not show significant information exchange linking the NWMS and Vb-cyclone precipitation in all the catchments.…”

Section: S9 In Supplement)supporting

confidence: 92%

“…Methods from information theory were recently used in quantifying interactions among sub-systems, especially in climate system applications (Pothapakula et al, 2019(Pothapakula et al, , 2020Krug et al, 2021;Ruddell et al, 2019). Transfer entropy (TE) was especially used in detecting and quantifying the direction of information exchange between two or more sub-systems.…”

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it is to be noted that the Granger causality is equivalent to the linear approximation of TE by a factor of 2 (Barnett et al, 2009). Krug et al (2021) applied the same methodology to quantify the information exchange between the NWMS and the precipitation over Odra catchments during Vb-cyclones.…”

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we chose the target variable to be the spatial averaged daily precipitation anomaly over the respective catchments during a Vb-cyclone event and the source being the simultaneous state of SST, evaporation or wind speed anomalies over the NWMS. The value of τ was taken to be zero and ω as one consistent to the study of Krug et al (2021). The TE measure in this study quantifies the reduction in uncertainty about the present state of precipitation in the respective catchment while knowing the state of NWMS (SST, evaporation or wind speed) during the same day given the knowledge of one day precipitation persistence in the catchment region.…”

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thereafter the NWMS state in terms of SST, evaporation and wind speed corresponding to the Vb-cyclone precipitation over the three catchments, the Danube, Elbe and Odra in the two simulations is analyzed. Finally to quantify the process chain linking the NWMS and the Vb-cyclone precipitation over the three catchments we use information theory methods similar to the studies by Pothapakula et al (2019Pothapakula et al ( , 2020; Krug et al (2021). These studies used information exchange to quantify the Indo-Pacific coupling, the interplay between the Indian Ocean dipole and El-Niño Southern Oscillation with the Indian Monsoon precipitation, and, the role of NWMS evaporation during the Vb-cyclone precipitation over Odra catchment.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection

Pothapakula

Krug²,

Obermann‐Hellhund³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Vb-cyclones propagating from the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) into central Europe are often associated with extreme precipitation. This study explores the state and process chain linking the NWMS state and the Vb-cyclone precipitation in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments in regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate simulations with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. Two high-resolution simulations, an evaluation simulation (1951–2005) downscaling the centennial ERA-20C reanalysis and a continuous simulation (historical 1951–2005 + RCP8.5 future scenario 2006–2099) downscaling the EC-EARTH global climate data set are used for this purpose. The results show a good agreement in mean annual Vb-cyclone frequency between the evaluation (9.7 events/year) and the historical (10.1 events/year) simulations. But, there are significant discrepancies in the seasonal cycle. The mean cyclone intensity measured with minimum central pressure, track density, and precipitation rankings in the three catchments also show good agreement. The simulations for the future period show a basin-average SST warming of ≈ 2.5–3 K by the end of 21st century, but insignificant changes in Vb-cyclone frequency, mean intensity, and precipitation in the selected catchments. The NWMS sea surface temperature, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies corresponding to the Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings differ between the evaluation and historical simulations. In the evaluation simulation, Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings correspond with sea surface temperature, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies, while in the historical and the future simulation no such correspondence is seen. Especially the Adriatic and Ionian basins in the simulation driven by EC-EARTH show no sensitivity to the Vb-cyclone precipitation over the catchments. The change in the processes between evaluation and historical simulations might be due to the emergence of biases inherited from the driving EC-EARTH global simulation. The future simulation shows no significant process changes compared to the historical simulation.

show abstract

Section: S9 In Supplement)supporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Quantifying Process Chain Between North-western Mediterranea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection

Pothapakula

Krug²,

Obermann‐Hellhund³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Moisture sources of heavy precipitation in Central Europe in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

During the past century, several extreme summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. The processes intensifying the precipitation in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments are only partially understood. Our study aims to investigate these processes with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics for 16 selected Vb-events. Moreover, we analyse the characteristics of typical moisture source regions during 1107 Vb-events from 1901 to 2010 based on ERA-20C reanalysis dynamically downscaled with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. We observe moisture contributions by various source regions highlighting the complex dynamical interplay of different air masses leading to moisture convergence in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. Overall, up to 80% of the precipitation originates from the European continent, indicating the importance of continental moisture recycling, especially within the respective river catchment. Other major moisture uptake regions are the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and for a few events the Black Sea. Remarkably, anomalies in these oceanic source regions show no connection to precipitation amounts in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones. In contrast, the Vb-cyclones with the highest precipitation are associated with anomalously high evaporation in the Mediterranean Sea, even though the Mediterranean Sea is only a minor moisture source region on average. Interestingly, the evaporation anomalies are not connected with sea-surface temperature but with wind-speed anomalies (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient $$R\approx$$ R ≈ 0.7, significant with $$p<0.01$$ p < 0.01 ) indicating mainly dynamically driven evaporation. The particular role of the Mediterranean Sea hints towards possible importance of Mediterranean moisture for the early-stage intensification of Vb-cyclones and the pre-moistening of the continental uptake regions upstream of the target catchments.

show abstract

European extreme precipitation: The effects of spatio-temporal resolution of the data

Hamouda

Pasquero

2021

Weather and Climate Extremes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation: a transfer entropy application showcase

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection

Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection

Moisture sources of heavy precipitation in Central Europe in synoptic situations with Vb-cyclones

European extreme precipitation: The effects of spatio-temporal resolution of the data

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About