Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models – the flash flood cases of 11–13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Barrera, Antonio; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

doi:10.5194/adgeo-12-121-2007

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…At the beginning of the 1990s, a long, persistent drought period caused high stress to agricultural and forest areas (Peñuelas et al, 2001;García-Herrera et al, 2007;Vicente and Cuadrat, 2007), while at the end of the 1990s and beginning of 2000s, heavy rainfall caused floods and human and financial losses (Llasat et al, 2003;Barrera et al, 2007;Barnolas et al, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946–2005

Luis

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo

Brunetti

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

235

110

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Abstract. An analysis was made of the Precipitation Concentration Index using the new MOPREDAS database of monthly precipitation in Spain (Monthly Precipitation Data base of Spain). The database was compiled after exhaustive quality control of the complete digitalized Spanish Meterological Agency (AEMet) archives and contains a total set of 2670 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation series from 1946 to 2005. Thus, MOPREDAS currently holds the densest information available for the 1946-2005 period for Spain and ensures a high resolution of results. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) is a powerful indicator of the temporal distribution of precipitation, traditionally applied at annual scales; as the value increases, the more concentrated the precipitation. Furthermore PCI is a part of the well-known Fournier index, with a long tradition on natural system analyses, as for example soil erosion. In this paper, the mean values of annual, seasonal and wet and dry periods of PCI in the conterminous Spain and for two normal periods (1946-1975 and 1976-2005) were studied.Precipitation in Spain follows a general NW-SE spatial pattern during the wet (months) period due to the Atlantic storm track, while during the dry (months) period, it follows a predominantly N-S spatial pattern. As a result, the annual values of PCI combine the two patterns and show a SW-NE PCI gradient.The analyses of the two sub-periods show significant changes in the precipitation occurred in conterminous Spain from 1946 to 2005, and precipitation concentration increased across most of the IP. At an annual scale, PCI increases mostly due to an increase in precipitation concentration during the wet season. At a seasonal scale significant changes were detected between 1945 -1975 and 1976, while changes in Correspondence to: J. C. González-Hidalgo (jcgh@posta.unizar.es) winter, spring and summer were mostly localized and not generalized (both increase and decrease). Changes in PCI seem to be complex and appear to be related to global atmospheric features and synoptic and local factors affecting precipitation trends. We discuss the possible explanation linked to the atmospheric pattern and monthly trends and their implications.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946–2005

Luis

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo

Brunetti

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

235

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Between 8000 and 10 000 claims were received by the Spanish National Equalising Consortium of Insurance Companies (Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros). The meteorological features of this event have been analysed in detail by Barrera et al (2007). (Fig.…”

Section: Flash Cases Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

High-impact floods and flash floods in Mediterranean countries: the FLASH preliminary database

et al. 2010

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Abstract. This paper contains a preliminary analysis of flood risk in Mediterranean countries, conducted within the framework of the FLASH European Project. All flood events recorded between 1990 and 2006 in the Mediterranean region have been included in the study. Results of previous international projects (STORM, SPHERE, AMPHORE, RI-NAMED and MEDEX), as well as information provided by FLASH Project partners and data included in scientific papers were the main source used in building this database. All the above information had been dispersed in various places, and an attempt was made here to create, for the first time, a verified and complete single database for the entire Mediterranean region. The work analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of flood events, as well as their social impact, with special attention to certain case studies that have been analysed in detail.

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“…However Dayon et al (2015) have compared different versions of AM and pointed out large possible biases in an application to France, when PRCP is used. In Catalonia, Barrera et al (2007) added the humidity at 1000 hPa to the set of predictors suggested formerly by Altava-Ortiz et al (2006). Similarly Bliefernicht and Bardossy (2007) selected three predictors (two geopotential heights and the moisture flux at 700 hPa defined by the product of the specific humidity at 700 hPa and the westerly wind) to predict rainfall in the Rhine basin in Germany.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%