Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments

“…However, this is usually not resolved to sub-daily frequency (although very high resolution climate models show improvements in sub-daily rainfall simulation, albeit for small numbers of simulations due to computational expense (e.g. Kendon et al, 2014)), and lacks the probabilistic approach of UKCP09 which shows the distribution of inter-annual variability. In the absence of sub-daily rainfall, which is needed to identify event rainfall accurately, it is possible to use daily rainfall and daily TP loads, although this is likely to result in a rainfall-TP load relationship which is less well defined, particularly in catchments with more groundwater influence where a time lag between rainfall and response in the stream is observed.…”

“…For much of the UK, climate change is expected to bring warmer, wetter winters, with fewer but more intense rain days, and hotter, drier summers (Murphy et al, 2009) and an increase in extreme events, including summer storms (Kendon et al, 2014). We hypothesise that climate change will alter the transfer of nutrients from land to water, and this study makes an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together, for the first time:…”

“…Winter rainfall for Pow Beck is projected to increase by 8-17% (10th-90th percentiles), and summer rainfall to decrease by 9-26%, with similar changes projected for Newby Beck. Although total summer rainfall is projected to decrease, it is likely that future rainfall will be concentrated into fewer, more intense summer storms as identified for the south of the UK by Kendon et al (2014).…”

“…In the future, these pressures will continue to increase, with larger populations making greater demands for food production, and, consequently, more intensive farming practices. The pressures are further exacerbated by the effect of a changing climate, which is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events (Kendon et al, 2014;Murphy et al, 2009), resulting in the likelihood of more winter runoff and longer periods of low flow Wilby et al, 2006), although still with much uncertainty (Arnell, 2011;Kay and Jones, 2012;Prudhomme et al, 2012). In conjunction with projected climatic changes, previous studies have indicated likely increases in sediment and nutrient loads (Crossman et al, 2014;El-Khoury et al, 2015;Jeppesen et al, 2009;Jeppesen et al, 2011;Macleod et al, 2012;Rankinen et al, 2015;Whitehead et al, 2009).…”

Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM

“…GCMs also remain important for providing initial and boundary conditions for RCMs (e.g. Kendon et al, 2010), which now yield kilometre-scale climate simulations (Hohenegger et al, 2008;Kendon et al, 2014;Prein et al, 2015), allowing for convection-permitting simulations crucial for representing, in particular, sub-daily precipitation extremes Kendon et al, 2017) and the soil moistureprecipitation feedback (Hohenegger et al, 2009).…”