Heating up

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01462-x

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 4 publications

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“…Global warming and sea level rise are two critical indicators of climate change. The record breaking summer of 2022 has sent an urgent and harsh reminder for action and resolution, with temperatures exceeding 40 °C in many parts of Europe and the USA 3 . Identifying the causal pathways leading to this change based on historical, open-box data and models that clarify the often complicated physical processes involved will provide more transparency on the role and significance of greenhouse gas emissions in driving climate change.…”

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confidence: 99%

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Song

Tong

Chao

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Song

Tong

Chao

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Applying recent advances in climate adaptation research to urban heat risk management

Singh,

Ramesh,

Hagenlocher

et al. 2024

WIREs Climate Change

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There is unequivocal evidence that anthropogenic climate change is supercharging temperature and precipitation regimes globally. One of the clearest signals of this is seen in current and projected increases in extreme heat, understood as changes in temperature maximums, longer duration heatwaves, and higher night‐time temperatures. Extreme heat has substantial impacts on socio‐ecological systems through direct impacts on human health and labor productivity, crop yields and water security; and second‐order impacts on infrastructure functioning and hazards (e.g., increased fire and drought incidence). These impacts are differentiated and mediated by preexisting vulnerabilities based on who you are, what you do, where you live, and your capacities to prepare for, prevent, cope with and adapt to heat exposure. Nowhere are these increasing and differentiated impacts of heat more visible than in populous, rapidly urbanizing regions. Governments across the world are piloting and implementing heat management strategies, which are variously called heat‐health plans, heat action plans, heat resilience strategies, and so forth. We argue that such actions and policy agendas can benefit from theoretical advances in the climate change vulnerability and adaptation literature. We synthesize five theoretical advances to highlight the need for suites of actions sequenced in pathways that are more sensitive to trade‐offs, center equity as a normative goal of effective adaptation, acknowledge uncertainty and preexisting differential vulnerabilities, leverage lessons from participatory adpatation planning, and are forward‐looking and preparatory actions. We consolidate these advances and develop an approach to inform urban heat risk management.This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Global Justice Climate and Development > Urbanization, Development, and Climate Change The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making

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