Heat stress in South America over the last four decades: a bioclimatic analysis

Abstract

The observed continuous rise in the frequency of extreme heat events in South America (SA) poses a serious challenge for public health. However, there is a lack on the understanding of the large-scale and long-term variability and trends of thermal stress in this continent. Accordingly, here we developed the first comprehensive bioclimatology of thermal stress over SA during the past four decades. Consecutive heat stress hours were analyzed using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis according to the Köppen–Geiger climate classification and also focusing on the 31 most populated cities of SA. Results show an inland/coastline contrast and a marked latitudinal northward increase in the number of hours under heat stress. Heat stress hotspots are located mostly around the Amazon, northern and central parts of SA with 26–35% of the hours between 1979 and 2020 under strong heat stress. The annual number of hours within heat stress increased significantly between 1979 and 2020, varying from + 1.16 hour/year to + 8.25 hour/year depending on the Köppen–Geiger class. The past 20 years (2000 forward) presented not only more consecutive hours under heat stress than the previous two decades in all the analyzed cities, but also a higher persistence of such extremes. The bioclimatology of thermal stress developed here may provide important guidelines to decision-makers for exploring adaptation strategies to increase societal resilience.