Heat-related mortality during hot summers in Polish cities

Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Choryński, Adam; Førland, Eirik J.; Pińskwar, Iwona; Szwed, Małgorzata

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2554-x

Cited by 34 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The results of Graczyk et al (2018) indicate that the increase in mortality related to heat waves is a serious threat in Poland already in the present climate and is likely to be even more severe in a future "warmer" climate. If climate model projections come true, then the most tragic heat wave in Poland, that took place in 1994, will be more commonplace in the coming decades.…”

Section: Heat Waves and Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize largely depended on selection of RCP and future horizon. Graczyk et al (2018) examined mortality triggered by heat waves in Poland. They estimated a likely number of additional fatalities in 10 largest cities of Poland, recorded during, and immediately after, heat waves in particularly hot summer seasons.…”

Section: Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increase in mortality during heat waves is a serious threat in Poland already in the present climate and is likely to be even more severe in a future "warmer" climate, since the heat waves are projected to be more commonplace in the future. The "load" will likely increase (heat waves get more intense and last longer), while the "resistance" will likely decrease, because the number of aged people in Poland is virtually certain to continue to grow faster Graczyk et al (2018), Szwed et al (2010) Map of the Year contest, 2016/2017, organized by the Society of Polish Cartographers. The information contained in the geoportal enables other researchers to use project results in their own studies on climate change and climate change impact.…”

Section: Generated Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

et al. 2018

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The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish-Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971-2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

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Section: Heat Waves and Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Generated Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

et al. 2018

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“…A consequence of the heat wave from 1994 was a considerable increase in the number of deaths. The total number of additional deaths in the 10 largest cities of Poland is estimated to have exceeded 1,070 persons (Graczyk et al, 2019). In earlier studies, Kuchcik (2001) evidenced that during the discussed heat wave in Warszawa, the increase in total mortality oscillated around 33% in comparison to the same period in 1995.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human‐biometeorological conditions during heat waves in Poland

Tomczyk

Bednorz

Matzarakis

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The primary objective of the paper was the description of humanbiometeorological conditions during heat waves in Poland in the years 1966-2018. The description is based on the human-biometeorological index Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). The research was based on data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute for 30 stations in Poland. A heat wave was defined as a sequence of at least 3 days with a maximum daily air temperature of >30 C. The research revealed increasingly frequent occurrence of heat waves in the territory of Poland. The highest number of heat waves was recorded in the western and southern regions of the country, and the lowest in coastal stations. In a large majority of stations, the longest heat waves occurred at the turn of July and August 1994 and in the first half of August 2015. In the case of two longest heat waves, human-biometeorological conditions were similar, although they were more strenuous during the heat wave in 1994. During that wave, considerably higher maximum PET values were recorded, but days with strong heat stress and extreme heat stress were also more frequent.

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“…With ongoing climate change, the health effects of heat waves and high temperatures have been thoroughly documented throughout the world [1], in Europe [2,3,4], and specifically in Estonia [5]. Even though it is likely that more frequent heat waves will occur in the future, the climate in the Baltics is generally cold, and the majority of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures in these areas are likely due to cold temperatures, as has been reported for neighboring countries like Sweden [6] and Finland [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

et al. 2019

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Background and objectives: Despite global warming, the climate in Northern Europe is generally cold, and the large number of deaths due to non-optimal temperatures is likely due to cold temperatures. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association between cold temperatures and all-cause mortality, as well as cause-specific mortality, in Tallinn and Riga in North-Eastern Europe. Materials and Methods: We used daily information on deaths from state death registries and minimum temperatures from November to March over the period 1997–2015 in Tallinn and 2009–2015 in Riga. The relationship between the daily minimum temperature and mortality was investigated using the Poisson regression, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model considering lag times of up to 21 days. Results: We found significantly higher all-cause mortality owing to cold temperatures both in Tallinn (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.01–1.62) and in Riga (RR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.11–1.79). In addition, significantly increased mortality due to cold temperatures was observed in the 75+ age group (RR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.17–2.31) and in cardiovascular mortality (RR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.31–2.55) in Tallinn and in the under 75 age group in Riga (RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.12–2.22). In this study, we found no statistically significant relationship between mortality due to respiratory or external causes and cold days. The cold-related attributable fraction (AF) was 7.4% (95% CI -3.7–17.5) in Tallinn and 8.3% (95% CI -0.5–16.3) in Riga. This indicates that a relatively large proportion of deaths in cold periods can be related to cold in North-Eastern Europe, where winters are relatively harsh.

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Heat-related mortality during hot summers in Polish cities

Cited by 34 publications

References 47 publications

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

Human‐biometeorological conditions during heat waves in Poland

Mortality Related to Cold Temperatures in Two Capitals of the Baltics: Tallinn and Riga

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