Heat-related mortality as an indicator of population vulnerability in a mid-sized Central European city (Novi Sad, Serbia, summer 2015)

Abstract

Hot summers with several intensive heat waves lead to strong heat-related mortality in Central and Southeast European cities. Therefore, the aim of the study was to evaluate association between maximum temaprature and mortality during the summer period in 2015 and to contribute to the future long-term assessment of heat-related mortality in urban population. The daily number of deaths of all causes and cause-specific mortality for the population of Novi Sad were used, as well as hourly air temperature data from the Novi Sad urban network (NSUNET) system. Four heat waves were detected using the Huth and Kysely methods. Three heat wave periods lasted longer than ten days. In July and August, 45% of days had a maximum temperature above 30 ºC, and more than 70% of days had a maximum temperature above 25 ºC. The average number of deaths was higher during the heat wave days. Significant association was found between Tmax and all-cause, cardiorespiratory, non-cardiorespiratory in total population, all-cause and cardiorespiratory mortality in the age group 65 and over. This study demonstrates a high magnitude of relation between mortality and temperature. Finally, the results show that population in urban areas is highly vulnerable during heat waves.

Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982-2019

“…Nevertheless, an abatement of this decline, possibly related to increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves and changes in the population age structure, has been documented recently (Urban et al, 2017;Urban et al, 2020). This has been supported by studies from other Central-European regions that reported significant impact of recent heatwaves on mortality in Germany (Muthers et al, 2017), Slovakia (Výberči et al, 2018), small Czech cities (Arsenović et al, 2019a) and Serbia (Arsenović et al, 2019b). Central-European cities, including Prague, the Czech Republic's capital, have recently been identified as cities with the largest increases in daily maximum temperatures by the end of the century under the high impact (RCP8.5) climate change scenario (Guerreiro et al, 2018).…”

Mapping Local Climate Zones and Their Applications in European Urban Environments: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Development Trends

“…Given the outline of conditions presented above, it follows that city populations are often at heat-related risk. Several studies indicate that heat stress is becoming more frequent, with associated increases in hospitalization and mortality among vulnerable groups, such as people with pre-existing chronic complaints (e.g., cardiovascular and/or respiratory diseases), children (under the age of 18) and the elderly (those aged 65 and over) [13][14][15][16][17]. Furthermore, Wouters et al [18] predicted that the increases in heat stress in certain large European cities will be double those in their natural surroundings by 2050.…”

Effectiveness of Tree Pattern in Street Canyons on Thermal Conditions and Human Comfort. Assessment of an Urban Renewal Project in Historical District in Lodz (Poland)

“…The result is an emerging phenomenon of urban heat islands in urban areas, characterized by an increase in air temperature in densely built-up central areas relative to undeveloped areas. Along with increasing heat waves in recent years, it is a serious problem from the human comfort and health point of view, especially in relation to vulnerable groups (elderly and sick people, young children) [1][2][3]. Extensive research conducted in four districts with different urban development patterns and geographic conditions in Shanghai indicated the local interplay between urban heat islands and heat waves [4].…”