Health Spending Projections Through 2019: The Recession’s Impact Continues

Abstract

The economic recession and rising unemployment-plus changing demographics and baby boomers aging into Medicare-are among the factors expected to influence health spending during 2009-2019. In 2009 the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have increased 1.1 percentage points to 17.3 percent-the largest single-year increase since 1960. Average public spending growth rates for hospital, physician and clinical services, and prescription drugs are expected to exceed private spending growth in the first four years of the projections. As a result, public spending is projected to account for more than half of all U.S. health care spending by 2012.

The Pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to Explain Changing Pharmacist Demand Over a Ten-Year Period

“…On the other hand, US population demographics predict increasing prescription medication use based on the numbers of aging baby boomers, health care reform, and changes in Medicare Part D. 19 While we found similar time trends between the ADI and annual prescription growth rates, prescription growth rates were not a significant predictor of ADI in bivariate analysis and did not add significantly to the model as a predictor when all variables were forced into the model. One explanation may be that prescription growth rates are influenced by variables less directly tied to pharmacist demand.…”

“…There are approximately 268,000 pharmacists in the national workforce and about 11,000 new graduates in 2010. 19 An increase (or decrease) of even 20% in new graduates (6 approximately 2,200 FTEs) creates a relatively small impact on the overall workforce size (, 1%). Retirement age can similarly increase the pharmacist supply; for example, delayed retirement, as observed in a 2009 survey 7 , for even 2 years would result in an estimated 3,200 full-time equivalents increase in the size of the workforce in 2010.…”

Thoughts about the Future of Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare and Higher Education

“…It currently consumes approximately 17% of GDP, amounting to almost $3 trillion [1,2].This is a mind-boggling amount of money that is spent on healthcare. It is particularly so when one considers the fact that this $3 trillion amounts to one half of all of the money spent in the world on healthcare and that the spending only covers 5% of the world's population [3].…”

Accountable Care Organizations

“…Furthermore, the current payment system does not either reward or require evidence of integration as a condition of payment. The absence of incentives to alter practice is associated with very high health costs (with health expenditures anticipated to rise to 20% of the gross domestic product by 2019) 6 and evidence of inappropriate use of resources. [7][8][9][10] The legislation creating ACOs as part of the ACA is hardly the first time that Congress has engaged in delivery reform efforts aimed at holding a single entity financially responsible for its patients across the care continuum.…”