Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

Evans, John Spencer; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D. W.

doi:10.2172/6299241

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Similarly, in their 1993 NUREG/CR-4214 report, the U.S. NRC published an updated cancer risk model for exposure to radiation from nuclear accident, which is a revision of the initial model they published in 1985. Later, the U.S. NRC developed an MACCS code as a tool for level 3 PSA, which is built upon the cancer risk model published in NUREG/CR-4214 in 1990 [6][7][8][9][10][11]. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) and the Interna-tional Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) have each developed an updated cancer risk model, which were presented in the UNSCEAR 2006 report and the ICRP 103, respectively [12,13].…”

Section: Jrprmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Review of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Models

Lee¹,

Kim²,

Han

2017

J Radiat Prot Res

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Background: With the need for a domestic level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), it is essential to develop a Korea-specific code. Health effect assessments study radiation-induced impacts; in particular, long-term health effects are evaluated in terms of cancer risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the latest cancer risk models developed by foreign organizations and to compare the methodology of how they were developed. This paper also provides suggestions regarding the development of Korean cancer risk models. Materials and Methods: A review of cancer risk models was carried out targeting the latest models: the NUREG model (1993), the BEIR VII model (2006), the UNSCEAR model (2006), the ICRP 103 model (2007), and the U.S. EPA model (2011). The methodology of how each model was developed is explained, and the cancer sites, dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) and mathematical models are also described in the sections presenting differences among the models. Results and Discussion: The NUREG model was developed by assuming that the risk was proportional to the risk coefficient and dose, while the BEIR VII, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and U.S. EPA models were derived from epidemiological data, principally from Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficient does not consider individual characteristics, as the values were calculated in terms of population-averaged cancer risk per unit dose. However, the models derived by epidemiological data are a function of sex, exposure age, and attained age of the exposed individual. Moreover, the methodologies can be used to apply the latest epidemiological data. Therefore, methodologies using epidemiological data should be considered first for developing a Korean cancer risk model, and the cancer sites and DDREF should also be determined based on Korea-specific studies. Conclusion: This review can be used as a basis for developing a Korean cancer risk model in the future.

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Section: Jrprmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Review of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Models

Lee¹,

Kim²,

Han

2017

J Radiat Prot Res

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“…The older literature concerning severe accident consequences adresses deterministic effects as early health effects and stochastic effects as late effects [30].…”

Section: Radiological Basis Of Emergency Planning and Preparednessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sometimes the MELCOR has been selected as the preferred code, for instance of the Swiss nuclear industry and of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI Villigen, Switzerland) for severe accident analysis, on account of its integrated systems-level approach and validation against experiments and more detailed codes, while MACCS is commonly used by safety authorities for the independent assessment of off-site consequences, in particular health effects [30]. No other U.S. code that presently is publicly available offers all of these capabilities.…”

Section: Maccs2mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental Consequences and Management of a Severe Accident

Schnadt¹,

Ivanov²

2012

Nuclear Safety in Light Water Reactors

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“…The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has undertaken extensive studies of health effects in support of its regulatory functions (USNRC 1989;USNRC 1990;USNRC 1991;USNRC 1993;Evans, Moeller, and Cooper 1985;Evans et al 1993;Haskin et al 1997a;Haskin et al 1997b;Little et al 1997a;Little et al 1997b).…”

Section: Sources Of Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Impacts from Acute Radiation Exposure

Strom¹

2003

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Acute radiation exposure refers to the delivery of high doses of radiation in periods of time on the order of days or less. Acute radiation exposure of human beings can occur through accidents, criminal activity, or acts of war. This report reviews the expected health impacts of exposures to people delivered at high dose rates. Two major variables needed to predict outcomes in people are the amount of radiation dose and its distribution in time, that is, dose rate and fractionation. Health impacts are categorized by time of appearance after irradiation as early and late effects. Early effects are termed deterministic, and their severity is an increasing function of dose and dose rate, with a dose threshold below which symptoms do not appear. Health impacts of relatively uniform irradiation of the whole body include three acute radiation syndromes, namely, the hematopoietic (bone marrow), gastrointestinal (GI), and cerebrovascular (CV) syndromes, with thresholds of about 2, 10, and 50 grays (Gy; 200, 1,000, and 50,000 rads). The dose that is expected to produce 50% mortality from the bone marrow syndrome in a population within 60 days, the LD 50-60 , is over 4 Gy (400 rads) if minimal medical treatment is provided, and over 6 Gy (600 rads) if supportive medical treatment is provided. While the LD 50 values for the GI and CV syndromes are higher, those doses invariably cause bone marrow fatality. Other syndromes that may cause fatality result from non-uniform irradiation. These are the cutaneous syndrome, in which the skin is heavily irradiated by beta irradiation, and the pulmonary syndrome, in which inhalation of beta-emitting or alpha-emitting radioactive material cause damage to the skin or lungs. Other deterministic effects include developmental abnormalities in the embryo, the fetus, or in growing children, such as mental retardation and thyroid disease. Loss of pregnancy, permanent or temporary sterility or impaired fertility, and cataracts (opacification of the crystalline lens of the eye) are also known effects. As doses to skin increase, erythema (skin reddening), desquamation (blistering), ulceration, and necrosis (tissue death) can also occur. Untreated ulceration or necrosis can also lead to death. If people survive the early, deterministic effects, they still bear some risk of late effects such as cancer and leukemia; some non-cancer conditions such as heart disease, stroke, digestive diseases, and respiratory diseases; and heritable ill-health. Cancers and heritable ill-health (formerly called genetic effects) occur in a population with a frequency that is an increasing function of dose, usually without threshold. As an illustration of late effects, in the latest (October 2003) followup of the Japanese nuclear bomb survivors, about 5% of 9,335 solid cancer deaths and 0.8% of 31,881 noncancer deaths in the survivor population are attributable to radiation exposures from the nuclear detonations. Many factors affect the radiosensitivity of people, including dose, dose rate, dose fractionation, the penet...

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Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

A Comparative Review of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Models

A Comparative Review of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Models

Environmental Consequences and Management of a Severe Accident

Health Impacts from Acute Radiation Exposure

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