HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Belušić, Danijel; Vries, Hylke de; Dobler, Andreas; Landgren, Oskar; Lind, Petter; Lindstedt, David; Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Sánchez-Perrino, Juan Carlos; Toivonen, Erika; Ulft, Bert van; Wang, F.; Andræ, Ulf; Batrak, Yurii; Kjellström, Erik; Lenderink, Geert; Nikulin, Grigory; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Rodríguez-Camino, Ernesto; Samuelsson, Patrick; Meijgaard, E. van; Wu, M. W.

doi:10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cited by 59 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 101 publications

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“…The CNRM-AROME model is based on the nonhydrostatic, convective-scale, limited-area model AROME (Applications de la Recherche à l'Opérationnel à Méso-Echelle) used for National Weather Prediction in Meteo-France since 2008 (Seity et al 2011;Brousseau et al 2016). The AROME model is also used in climate mode by the HARMONIE-CLIMATE community (Belušic et al 2020;Lind et al 2020).…”

Section: Cnrm-arome Cp-rcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

et al. 2021

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Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

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Section: Cnrm-arome Cp-rcmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

et al. 2021

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“…A total of 23 simulations (22 for coarse resolution simulations), performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble-WRF (the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system, Powers et al 2017), RegCM4 (regional climate modeling system, Giorgi et al 2012), AROME (Fumière et al 2019;Belušić et al 2020), REMO (regional climate model, Pietikäinen et al 2018), UM (Unified model, Berthou et al 2018;Chan et al 2019), and COSMO (Consortium for Small Scale Modeling) in climate mode (Rockel et al 2008;Baldauf et al 2011).…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

et al. 2021

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Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of $$\sim $$ ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution ($$\sim $$ ∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from $$\sim \,$$ ∼ −40% at 12 km to $$\sim \,$$ ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.

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“…With even higher horizontal resolution, so-called convection permitting models with grid spacing of a few km, are found to improve the simulation of both spatial and temporal features of precipitation (e.g. Belušić et al, 2020). Importantly, this involves also the representation of extreme events as they are much more capable of representing high-intensity rainfall than their coarser-scale counterparts (e.g.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

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Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

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HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Cited by 59 publications

References 101 publications

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

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