Hazard Risk Analysis of Typhoon Damage by Applying Grey System Theory

Wang, Ru-Yih; Cheng, Szu-Ping

doi:10.1142/9789812776969_0117

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

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“…The potential loss in this article can be expressed as the function of X, Y, and x, i.e., Loss = f(X,Y,x). Suppose that the types of loss functions, such as first-order function, second-order function, and the exponential function, are formulated as linear or nonlinear (Wang et al 2002), various combination cases (nine in this article) of loss functions regarding flood hazards (L 1 ) and water-supply shortage (L 2 ) are listed in Table 1, and their corresponding distributions are illustrated in Fig. 5.…”

Section: Loss Functions and Optimal Releasementioning

confidence: 99%

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

Cheng

Wei

2007

Nat Hazards

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The wet and dry seasons are distinctive in Taiwan as the amount of precipitation in wet seasons accounts for over three-fourth of the total rainfall. And the waterresources management relies pretty much on the rainfall brought in by typhoons as it accounts for a significant portion of the precipitation during wet seasons. Furthermore, as the storage of reservoirs is limited due to topographical factors, the management of typhoon rainfall has always been an important issue in Taiwan. The technique of decisiontree analysis is applied in this article to determine the optimal reservoir release in advance upon the issuance of a typhoon warning by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and the proposed methodology may provide solution to the trade-off judgment of reservoir operations between flood control and water supply according to economic efficiency. In this article, the economic loss functions of flooding damage and water-supply shortage are assumed in linear and nonlinear conditions, and the respective expected optimal releases based on the predicted precipitation as issued by CWB are derived. The proposed methodology has been applied to the Shihmen Reservoir System, and the capabilities of the model as an aid to real-time decision-making as well as the evaluation of the economic worth of forecasts is presented.

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Section: Loss Functions and Optimal Releasementioning

confidence: 99%

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

Cheng

Wei

2007

Nat Hazards

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Applying Risk Analysis to the Disaster Impact of Extreme Typhoon Events Under Climate Change

Wei

Cheng

et al. 2015

J. Disaster Res.

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Extreme typhoon precipitation events frequently have a socioeconomic impact and result in the loss of human life. Therefore, conducting thorough evaluations of the disaster scale before the occurrence of extreme typhoon precipitation events is beneficial to disaster reduction. This study selects the Tsengwen River basin, Taiwan, the area most severely impacted by typhoon Morakot, as a demonstration area, and adopts dynamical downscaling data to simulate the top ten extreme typhoon precipitation events of the future (from 2069 to 2099) under climate change. The SOBEK model (commercial software) and the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS), established by the National Science and Technology Center of Disaster Reduction (NCDR), are used to evaluate the potential losses resulting from the ten extreme events. The results indicate that the average total loss caused by the ten simulated typhoon events amounts to US$439 million, with agriculture, followed by aquaculture and forestry, suffering the greatest damage. A correlation analysis is also employed to identify key factors that influence loss, including the maximum 6-hour cumulative precipitation, the maximum peak runoff, and the use of the land. Based on these analysis results, this study provides applicable coping strategies that will effectively reduce the impact of future extreme precipitation events in the Tsengwen River basin.

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Hazard Risk Analysis of Typhoon Damage by Applying Grey System Theory

Cited by 2 publications

References 5 publications

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

Decision-tree analysis on optimal release of reservoir storage under typhoon warnings

Applying Risk Analysis to the Disaster Impact of Extreme Typhoon Events Under Climate Change

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