Have Precipitation Forecasts Improved?

Ramage, C. S.

doi:10.1175/1520-0477-63.7.739

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Bosart (1983), for the SUNYA equivalent of our 7MIN and PP forecasts, shows averaged loss of skill at the annual rate of eight tenths of a percent (from the regression coefficients in his figures 1 and 2) per year. Ramage (1982), in a study of NWS 12-h forecasts of precipitation probability up to 36-h range, found evidence of increasing skill only in the eastern and central regions in winter and there at an annual rate of only one or two tenths of a percent. In a study designed to see whether Ramage's pessimism would withstand reexamination of the data and extension in time, Glahn (1985) considered these NWS forecasts from 1967 to 1982.…”

Section: Trends With Timementioning

confidence: 98%

“…Why is more expected of us? Could it be, as Ramage (1982) has so succinctly put it, that "the great technological developments of the duodecennium have apparently belied the expectations of their proponents"?…”

Section: Concluding Commentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the indication from the first six years of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) forecasting contest that the state of the art of short-range-forecast skill was not advancing rapidly (Sanders, 1973), there has been considerable interest in this and related issues, in the real world (e.g., Pierce, 1976;Ramage, 1976Ramage, , 1982Zurndorfer et al, 1979;Charba and Klein, 1980;Glahn, 1985;Gordon, 1985) as well as on the academic scene (Bosart, 1975(Bosart, , 1983Gedzelman, 1978;Firestone, 1979;Scanlon and Anawalt, 1980;Baker, 1982). Six years have passed since the last report on the state of the MIT contest, and it is appropriate to report whether the modest trends found at that time (Sanders, 1979) have continued.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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focus on forecasting1

1986

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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A forecast experiment was conducted from 1 June to 12 August 1983 at the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS) in Boulder, Colorado. The exercise included probabilistic forecasts of severe-weather convective outlooks prepared with the use of existing technology and severe-storm warnings made with the use of advanced technology to display a wide variety of data sets on the PROFS workstation. The convective outlooks were evaluated using signal-detection-theory analyses and Brier scores. Considerable skill using signal-detection theory was found for both severe-thunderstorm and tornado outlooks, treated as separate outlooks. On the other hand, Brier skill scores relative to sample climatology show small skill for the thunderstorm outlooks and no skill for the tornado outlooks. The signal-detection analyses provide valuable baseline values for future evaluation studies.Skill scores for the warnings issued at PROFS are compared with a similar set of skill scores for Warnings from the Denver WSFO (Weather Service Forecast Office). Considerably higher skill is found in PROFS severe-thunderstorm-warning scores. This result is attributed to advanced technology and the controlled environment in the PROFS forecast office. For tornado warnings, the probability of detection was slightly higher and the false-alarm rate was much lower at the Denver WSFO than at PROFS. The high false-alarm rate at PROFS is ascribed to the lack of familiarity with the new Doppler-radar data, the overreaction to those data, and the incompleteness of the radar data set. An analysis of area-and time-weighted skill scores is also presented to illustrate the concept that frequently issued time-and site-specific severe-storm warnings have a marked potential for improved service to the public.forecasts of severe weather (MacDonald, 1984). The summer forecast exercise included the following objectives: 1) to test a new version of the forecasting workstation, upgraded since the 1982 system reported by Reynolds (1983); 2) to obtain expert opinion on the scientific and technological obstacles to further progress in convective forecasting; 3) to develop procedures for evaluating progress in nowcasting and very-short-range forecasting of convection as these terms are defined by Zipser (1985). Three types of forecasts were prepared daily: 1) a convective-weather outlook for probabilities of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms; 2) warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods as necessary; and 3) scheduled forecasts of significant weather probabilities for precipitation, wind, and visibility. Williams and McCoy (1984) have presented a preliminary report on evaluation of the probability forecasts. Schlatter et al. (1985) discuss topics related to the first two objectives of the 1983 exercise listed above.This paper presents an evaluation of the daily severeweather convective outlook forecasts and the severe-weather warnings (nowcasts to short-term forecasts) prepared during the experiment.

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Section: Trends With Timementioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Concluding Commentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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focus on forecasting1

1986

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…2.1a). However, in recent years the skill of forecasts of precipitation occurrence has improved little (Shuman, 1978), if at all (Ramage, 1982), and the skill of quantitative precipitation forecasts has not improved ( Fig. …”

Section: * Current Nw Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Outlook for Improved Numerical Weather Prediction Using Satellite Data with a Special Emphasis on the Hydrological Variables,

Kaplan¹,

Hoffman²,

Isaacs³

et al. 1983

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confidence: 99%

A Note on the Relationship between Relative Precipitation Frequency and Percent of Correct Forecasts

Reed

1983

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

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Ramage (1982) has presented evidence, based on extensive verification data for precipitation forecasts, that the percent of correct forecasts decreases approximately linearly with increasing precipitation frequency. However, only a limited range of precipitation frequency was examined in his study. Here the theoretical reltionship between these quantities is derived for the full range of precipitation frequency with use of a model that assumes the forecasts to be unbiased and the Heidke Skill Score to be independent of precipitation frequency. It is shown that for this simple model the relationship is quadratic, the percent correct dropping from 100% for a relative precipitation frequency of zero to a minimum value for a relative frequency of 0.5 and rising again to 100% for a relative frequency of 1.0. The data presented by Ramage appear to fit the quadratic relationship well, within the limited range shown in Fig. 4 of his article.

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Have Precipitation Forecasts Improved?

Cited by 10 publications

References 1 publication

focus on forecasting1

focus on forecasting1

Outlook for Improved Numerical Weather Prediction Using Satellite Data with a Special Emphasis on the Hydrological Variables,

A Note on the Relationship between Relative Precipitation Frequency and Percent of Correct Forecasts

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