Background: Norway has achieved a noteworthy reduction in smoking prevalence over the past forty years. In 2015, 13% of Norwegians aged 13-74 smoked daily and a further 9% 2 smoked occasionally. One of the objectives of the Norwegian 2013-2016 national strategy for tobacco control is to achieve a reduction in the daily smoking prevalence to less than 10% by 2016. This paper aims to estimate how long it will take for Norway to achieve the 10% smoking prevalence. Methods: A dynamic forecasting model using smoking prevalence data from national survey data on the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in the Norwegian population from 1985 to 2012 was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Norwegian population based on a continuation of current patterns in smoking cessation and initiation rates. Results: The result suggests that Norway's smoking prevalence among men and women will continue to decline if current trends of smoking initiation and cessation continue. Our model predicts, based on figures for , that the prevalence of current daily and occasional smoking rates combined among men and women will not fall below the 10% mark until 2029 for men and 2026 for women, if current trends continue. Conclusion: Smoking is likely to remain an important public health issue in Norway for many years. New strategies are needed to accelerate the decline in smoking in
Norway.Keywords: smoking cessation, smoking epidemiology, Norway, statistical models 3
IntroductionWith a long history of tobacco control, 1 Norway has achieved a remarkable reduction in smoking prevalence over the past forty years. The percentage of Norwegians who smoke daily has declined from around 43% in 1973 to 13% in 2014. 2 The reduction in smoking prevalence has been most dramatic among men, with rates of daily smoking declining from 51% in 1973 to 14% in 2014, while rates of daily smoking among women has declined from 32% to 13% over the same time period.
3Norway was one of the first countries to endorse a comprehensive tobacco control act that resulted in a significant decline in smoking prevalence. 1 The availability of snus, a moist smokeless tobacco product originating in Sweden that is placed under the top lip, on the Norwegian tobacco market might also be of importance for the decline in smoking rates.
23The Norwegian 2013-2016 national strategy for tobacco control includes increasing tobacco taxation, enforcing comprehensive advertising bans, placing graphic health warnings on tobacco packs, and restricting smoking in public areas and workplaces. 3,4 Norway is also currently considering introducing plain packaging legislation; a measure previously introduced in Australia in 2012 and due to be introduced in France, UK and Ireland in 2016, which ensures that all tobacco products are sold in standardised packs without company logos or colours. 5 This strategy therefore aims to minimize smoking uptake by making tobacco products less appealing to young non-smokers and to make health warnings on packs more noticeable to cu...