Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices

Abstract

Monitoring of structural change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) requires examination of the changes in their structural economic vulnerability. This cannot be done by comparing the level of the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) that is calculated for each triennial review of the list of LDCs, because of the change in the design of the index. In this paper, the change in the structural vulnerability of LDCs is assessed according to two retrospective series of EVI, based on constant definitions, those respectively used at the 2006 and 2012 reviews. The real change in structural economic vulnerability is thus isolated from the impact of the changes in the design of the index (components, weighting, methods of calculation, and data updating).

Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India

“…Earlier work using the temperature binning approach in India has focused on the effect of heat on aggregate (rather than crop-specific) yields (Burgess et al, 2017). Finally, my focused analysis of high-temperature impacts is a valuable complement to work that has analyzed broader, more holistic measures, such as economic vulnerability (Cariolle et al, 2016) or sustainable livelihoods (Shah et al, 2017).…”

Vulnerability and Resilience:

“…16 The retrospective series with the 2006-2009 design, however, shows more variability over time than that with the 2012 design, due to the way some exposure components are now calculated (3-year averaged export concentration and agriculture share indices and the remoteness index). The slightly declining trend of EVI recorded for the average of LDCs is less than for the other developing countries (Cariolle, Goujon, and Guillaumont 2014), and results more from the trend in the exposure subindex than in the shock subindex. It should be noted that the exposure trend is highly influenced by population growth, a factor which does not really reflect a relevant structural change.…”

“…Comparisons over time (has vulnerability decreased or increased?) are quite less frequent (see Cariolle et al 2014). In the case of this study, we are actually interested in both aspects, and accordingly endeavor to use measures that are consistent across time and compatible with crosscountry exercises as well.…”

“…To overcome this difficulty, the evolution in structural vulnerability has been assessed at Ferdi according to two retrospective series of the EVI, based on constant definitions, those used respectively for the 2006 and 2012 reviews of the list of LDCs. The real change in structural economic vulnerability is thus isolated from the impact of the change in the design of the index (components, weighting, methods of calculation, as well as data updating) (see Cariolle, Goujon, and Guillaumont 2014).…”

Exporting to fragile states in Africa: Firm‐level evidence

“…and the process was widely consultative (World Bank, ). It is related but not similar to the definition of economic vulnerability as captured by the Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), that is, the likelihood that a country's development could be hindered by unforeseen exogenous shocks (Cariolle, Goujon, & Guillaumont, ; Guillaumont, ). The extreme variant of fragility definition is also associated with conflict and civil wars, a field that has received far more attention in the literature (Qureshi, ; Glick & Taylor, ; Martin, Mayer, & Thoenig, ; Collier & Hoeffler, ; Anderson & Marcouiller, ).…”