Has Macroeconomic Performance Regained Its Antipoverty Bite?

Abstract

From the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, several important studies examined the statistical relationship between the U.S. official poverty rate and overall economic performance. Most of these studies focused on the apparent break in this relationship beginning in the late 1970s or early 1980s. In this article, we present the results of our study of the relationship between macroeconomic performance and the poverty rate, using annual time-series data on macroeconomic variables, such as the unemployment rate and per-capita GDP growth from 1959 through 1998. Like these earlier studies, we also find that economic performance had a smaller antipoverty effect during the 1970s and 1980s than it did in earlier years. However, our estimates suggest that the weakened economic growth-poverty relationship may have been an aberration of this period and that the expected relationship of the 1960s has again been reestablished in the 1990s. This is true even after accounting for changes in earnings inequality over the entire period. Copyright 2000 Western Economic Association International.

Are the Effects of the Macroeconomy and Social Policies on Poverty Different in Nonmetro Areas in the United States?*

“…The improvements in the well-being of low-income Americans over this time period has been ascribed to the strong macroeconomy at both the state and national level and the expansion of the EITC program (Gundersen and Ziliak 2004). The importance of the macroeconomy in improving the wellbeing of low-income households has been found repeatedly in the large and long-standing literature looking at the connection between the economy and poverty (e.g., Anderson 1964;Blank and Card 1993;Cutler and Katz 1991;Gundersen and Ziliak 2004;Haveman and Schwabish 2000;Iceland 2003). Consistent with this research on the importance of macroeconomic growth, the economic downturn of the early 2000s led to an increase in the poverty rate to 12.5 percent by 2003.…”

Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in the U.S.

“…However, the overlap between the two groups is not very high. Typically only 5 to 6 % of the population was income poor as well as multidimensional 11 Though historically there is some evidence suggesting that growth of GDP since about 1980 seems to have a smaller antipoverty effect than in the 1960 s and 1970 s, see Haveman and Schwabish (2000). 12 Although the Affordable Care Act has lowered the proportion of people without health insurance, there are reports that many low-income workers still find the coverage unaffordable; thus the indicator will remain relevant in the future.…”

The Impact of State Minimum Wages on Child Poverty in Female-Headed Families

“…1991; Blank & Card, 1993;Haveman & Schwabish, 2000;and DeFina, 2004). Gross state product, a more encompassing measure of state aggregate economic activity, cannot be used due to a discontinuity in the official series during the 1990s resulting from definitional changes.…”