Hard times and falling fertility in the United States

Abstract

Recent reports have suggested that falling fertility in the US since the 2008 recession is being driven by women with advantaged status in the labor market taking advantage of career opportunities. This paper takes issue with that conclusion. Although high incomes are associated with lower fertility in general, both in the cross section and over time (within and between countries), economic crises also lead to lower fertility. I offer a new descriptive analysis using data from the American Community Survey for 2000-2019. In the U.S. case, the fertility decline was widespread after the 2008 recession, but most concentrated among younger women. Although women with above average education have long had lower birth rates, the analysis shows that birth rates fell most for women in states with higher than average unemployment rates, especially among those with below average education. This is consistent with evidence that birth rates are falling, and births delayed, by economic insecurity and hardship.

Methodological Analysis of Period Fertility in Saudi Arabia for 2018

“…In general, more industrialized and economically developed societies have lower fertility than less developed agricultural societies (Thasineku, 2019). Also, within countries, in general, more educated and higher income groups have lower fertility than less educated lower income groups (Cohen, 2021). Historically, as groups within countries have improved their standards of living, nations have become more economically developed, health conditions have improved, morbidity and mortality rates have decreased, and fertility has declined due to the adoption of fertility-restricting behaviors, such as limiting sexual relations or marriage, practicing contraception, and resorting to induced abortion (Thompson, 2022).…”