Half the worlds population already experiences years 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C above preindustrial. A natural question for the public to ask is “But how much warmer than preindustrial is where I live?” We develop a pattern-scaling technique to present local annually-resolved, gridded temperature anomalies prior to the industrial burning of fossil fuels. On average the past 5 years, 2014-2018, was 1.13 °C above preindustrial (with a likely range of 1.00-1.26 °C). When accounting for the distribution of the human population and urban heat island effect, we find that people experienced an average warming of 1.61 °C (1.43-1.79 °C) over the same period. When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the majority of the global population was exposed to local, annual temperatures warmer than 1.5 °C above preindustrial.

Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 <i>midHolocene</i> simulations

“…1) based on the climate sensitivity of each model (Tab. 1) and pattern scaling (Brierley et al, 2019). The estimated global mean pattern-scaled anomaly is -0.28°C, similar to the difference between the two model generations (Fig.…”

Multiple Evidence for Climate Patterns Influencing Ecosystem Productivity across Spatial Gradients in the Venice Lagoon

“…Current global trends in greenhouse gas emissions will lead to at least 1.5 • C of atmospheric warming by 2030-2050 and at least 3 • C by 2100 [1,2], and half the world's population already experiences temperatures 1.5 • C warmer than preindustrial [3]. The rise of sea surface temperature (SST) is tightly connected with these changes.…”

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

“…A critical decade now lies ahead to adapt human and natural systems and to act to keep ongoing warming below catastrophic levels (Hobday and Cvitanovic 2017;Cvitanovic et al 2018;IOC, UNESCO 2019;Ryabinin et al 2019). Current global trends in greenhouse gas emissions will lead to at least 1.5ºC of atmospheric warming by 2030-2050 and at least 3ºC by 2100 (Rogelj et al 2015;IPCC 2019), and half the world's population already experiences temperatures 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial (Brierley et al 2019). This level of climate change is currently having and will continue to have ongoing significant impacts on the oceans, marine ecosystems and reliant socio-ecological systems (Bindoff et al 2019).…”