Habitat availability and environmental preference drive species range shifts in concordance with climate change

Abstract

Aim A progressive increase in air temperature is recognized as the most important mechanistic driver of species range shifts. However, only a few studies have simultaneously considered the influence of both extrinsic and intrinsic mechanistic drivers; there are still no studies on the roles of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers that regulate such species changes. We investigated how species will shift their geographical ranges to cope with future climate change and analysed the relative importance of the mechanistic drivers in governing species range shifts. Location Sixteen countries in South, West and North Europe. Methods We used ensemble species distribution models on the European continental scale to predict 105 odonate species in response to climate change in the future decades until 2080s under three emission scenarios. We evaluated the projected changes in four community metrics (distribution area, optimum position, leading edge and trailing edge) and investigated how these changes are driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Results The odonate species were predicted to shift their range margins poleward, with a higher migration rate towards the trailing edge (2.38‒10.34 km/year) than the leading edge (1.13‒2.00 km/year). Contrary to the assumption that the response of the odonate species to climate change will linearly accelerate over time, the distribution areas of odonate species were predicted to increase until 2050s and then decline until 2080s under RCP 2.6 (representative concentration pathway). However, their distributions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to decrease over time, with a higher rate under RCP 8.5. Overall, environmental preference and habitat override dispersal ability govern the range shift of odonate species. Main conclusions Quantifying the relative importance of extrinsic and intrinsic factors across a large spatial scale under different emission scenarios can help understand the mechanistic processes to facilitate species range shifts.

Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates

“… Markovic et al (2014) modeled aquatic biodiversity and found that odonate species richness were very little affected by climate changes until 2050 and explained this by their relatively high-aerial dispersal ability compared with strictly aquatic species groups. Li and Park (2020) modeled odonate distribution covering the western and the northern Europe and found an increase in species richness toward the north until 2050, and thereafter, a decline until 2080. The results from these two studies differ somewhat from ours, in that our models predicted clear range expansion and increased species richness toward the north, which was not found or was less evident in these other studies.…”

“…Besides intrinsic factors such as STI and competition ( Yang and Rudolf 2010 , Suhling and Suhling 2013 ), extrinsic factors might affect climate-induced range shifts and changes in species richness of odonates in the future. For instance, Li and Park (2020) found that, while STI was the main factor, extrinsic factors such as land cover type and water velocity also had a significant effect in predicting future distributional changes. However, the effect of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on niche overlap is not well studied.…”

“…Moreover, another study, which was conducted in Germany using occupancy models, confirmed the positive effect of temperature preference as well as the key role of species habitat on distribution trends ( Bowler et al 2021 ). While ENMs have been constructed for two closely related northern European damselfly species ( Wellenreuther et al 2012 ), future projections are still lacking for high-latitude species in this region ( Collins and McIntyre 2015 , but see Li and Park 2020 ). Although regional-scale ENMs usually do not cover the entire distribution of species, they continue being useful in predicting distributional change and guiding future surveys ( El-Gabbas and Dormann 2018 ), especially in the high latitudes neglected by the past ENM efforts ( Collins and McIntyre 2015 ).…”

Bacterial Diversity and CAZyme Potential Revealed in Pandanus Rich Thermal Spring Cluster of India: A Non-cultivable 16S rRNA Sequencing Approach

“…Moderate temperatures have been reported to harbor diverse microbiome ( Badhai et al, 2015 ; Bennett et al, 2020 ). Minor deviation from the above trend, observed in the Pearson correlation between the environmental parameter and the microbial abundance genera ( Figure 6A ), could be due to the geochemical features playing an interfering role in individual springs ( Li and Park, 2020 ). However, it was observed that the abundance of bacteria was higher in DJ04 samples (outflow) at a temperature 55°C.…”

A Warm Welcome to the Alps—The Northward Expansion of Trithemis annulata (Odonata, Libellulidae) in Italy

“…Many authors have suggested that Odonata are ideally suited to study the effects of climate change [4,9,10], and the effects of recent climate warming have been investigated in a large number of publications [5,7,9,[11][12][13]. Because species range shifts primarily depend on thermal niche, geographical ranges are expected to shift as a response to warming [10]. However, the various species differ considerably in thermal tolerances [14].…”