Gyrfalcon nest distribution in Alaska based on a predictive GIS model

Booms, Travis L.; Huettmann, Falk; Schempf, Philip F.

doi:10.1007/s00300-009-0711-5

Cited by 36 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Training Data.-Gyrfalcon nest locations were obtained from Booms et al (2009) and consisted of historical nest locations gathered by field biologist during 1972-2007. We did not include 41 nests used by Booms et al (2009) from Denali National Park because locations of these nests were not provided.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We did not include 41 nests used by Booms et al (2009) from Denali National Park because locations of these nests were not provided. However, to our knowledge, our dataset is the largest collection of historical Gyrfalcon nest locations distributed across the state of Alaska.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Likewise, we randomly distributed points outside their mapped distributions in Alaska and used these as absence points (n = 2280). All presence and absence (ptarmigan) or pseudo-absence (Gyrfalcon) points were compiled and overlain with the following predictor variables in Hawth's tools: mean June and December temperature (C°), mean June and December precipitation amount (cm) (see below), elevation (USGS 1997), and subsurface geology (Beikman 1980) for use as inputs into Random Forest algorithm following Booms et al (2009) and Cushman and Huettmann (2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…mental niche of these species . To smooth out anomalous local variability in the spatial prediction maps within the predictor layers used as inputs to the model, we followed Booms et al (2009) using an Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation to bring the lattice into 5-km grid cells. The pre-processing of the time-series climate data thus included smoothing in both space and time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Zuckerberg et al (2010), all data layers (except for sensitive raptor nest locations (Booms et al 2009)), metadata, and predictions used in the publication are available to the global public to access online. As these data and the overall understanding of the effects of temperature and precipitation on species distributions on a landscape are improved, these species models can be changed to incorporate new, better understood inputs.…”

Section: • Predicted Presence • Predicted Absencementioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking Alaska's Predicted Climate, Gyrfalcon, and Ptarmigan Distributions in Space and Time: A Unique 200-Year Perspective.

Booms¹

2011

Gyrfalcons and Ptarmigan in a Changing World

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ABSTRACT.-Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and Willow Ptarmigan (L. lagopus) are quintessential Arctic species that are closely linked within the Arctic ecosystem. They likely face similar challenges in the face of rapid changes to their Arctic climate. Gyrfalcons in particular may be most challenged by rapid climate change because of their relatively specialized ecological niche, small population size, and K-selected life history strategy. Given this situation, we were interested in predicting how the distribution of these species may change under current climate predictions. Therefore, we modeled the fundamental niche of each species in relation to temperature and precipitation in space and time across 200 years in Alaska (1900-2100). Though the realized niche will ultimately determine where species are distributed in the future, we interpreted our predictions as representing the areas in which environmental conditions will allow the species to occur. We were interested in the large-scale, climate-induced trends in expansion, contraction, and overlap of these areas over time.We used the Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning (SNAPs) regionalized/downscaled decadal mean June and December temperature and precipitation predictions from the A1B scenario, and as proposed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to forward-model distributions from 2009-2099 in 30-year intervals. We used historical temperature and precipitation measurements from 1900-2006 to backwards-model the distribution of the species' fundamental niche to qualitatively assess forward-modeling predictive accuracy.Forward-models predicted that the fundamental niches of Gyrfalcons and ptarmigan will contract spatially, and backwards-models suggested that they have contracted in the past as Alaska's climate has warmed. Over the 200-year period, the total geographic area over which the species' fundamental niches were predicted to occur decreased overall by 20% (Willow Ptarmigan), 40% (Rock Ptarmigan) and 60% (Gyrfalcon). The distribution of the predicted fundamental niche of each species also became more fragmented, and the percent of spatial overlap between predicted presence of Gyrfalcons and ptarmigan declined over time. These alterations may affect the species' long-term viability and co-evolution and will likely influence important biological processes such as dispersal, genetic diversity, predator-prey dynamics, and basic behavior. Predicted shifts in the geographic distribution of their fundamental niches may have cascading effects on other species, communities, and systems. For science-based, pro-active, adaptive management, 177

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: • Predicted Presence • Predicted Absencementioning

confidence: 99%

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