Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

Hess, Jeremy; Ranadive, Nikhil; Boyer, Christopher; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Anenberg, Susan C.; Aunan, Kristin; Belesova, Kristine; Bell, Michelle L.; Bickersteth, Sam; Bowen, Kathryn; Burden, Marci; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Cissé, Guéladio; Cohen, François; Dai, Hancheng; Dangour, Alan D.; Dasgupta, Purnamita; Frumkin, Howard; Gong, Peng; Gould, Robert J.; Haines, Andy; Hales, Simon; Hamilton, Ian; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Horton, Daniel E.; Karambelas, Alexandra; Kim, Ho; Kim, Satbyul Estella; Kinney, Patrick L.; Koné, Inza; Knowlton, Kim; Lelieveld, Jos; Limaye, Vijay S.; Liu, Qiyong; Madaniyazi, Lina; Martinez, Micaela E; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Milner, James; Neville, Tara; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Pachauri, Shonali; Perera, Frederica P.; Pineo, Helen; Remais, Justin V.; Saari, Rebecca K.; Sampedro, Jon; Scheelbeek, Pauline; Schwartz, Joel; Shindell, D. T.; Shyamsundar, Priya; Taylor, Timothy J.; Tonne, Cathryn; Vuuren, Detlef van; Wang, Can; Watts, Nicholas; West, J. Jason; Wilkinson, Paul; Wood, Stephen A.; Woodcock, James; Woodward, Alistair; Xie, Yang; Zhang, Ying; Ebi, Kristie L.

doi:10.1289/ehp6745

Cited by 51 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Future work that focuses on the warm season could investigate the urban ozone sensitivity of e‐HDV versus e‐LDV adoption fractions, as their electrification could impact NO x /VOC ratios differently, especially within the urban core. Other improvements are potentially more fundamental, such as designing the modeling framework to maximize use of the results by policymakers and stakeholders, as recent evidence suggests harmonization across studies could be improved (Hess et al., 2020).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

et al. 2021

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Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co‐benefits. As such, China has aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with regard to EVs’ mitigation potential, including optimal vehicle type prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air regulations, and the ability of EVs to reduce acute impacts of extreme air quality events. Here, we present a suite of scenarios with a chemistry transport model that assess the potential co‐benefits of EVs during an extreme winter air quality event. We find that regardless of power generation source, heavy‐duty vehicle (HDV) electrification consistently improves air quality in terms of NO2 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), potentially avoiding 562 deaths due to acute pollutant exposure during the infamous January 2013 pollution episode (∼1% of total premature mortality). However, HDV electrification does not reduce GHG emissions without enhanced emission‐free electricity generation. In contrast, due to differing emission profiles, light‐duty vehicle (LDV) electrification in China consistently reduces GHG emissions (∼2 Mt CO2), but results in fewer air quality and human health improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic impacts for human health endpoints and CO2 reductions for LDV electrification are nearly double those of HDV electrification in present‐day (155M vs. 87M US$), but are within ∼25% when enhanced emission‐free generation is used to power them. Overall, we find only a modest benefit for EVs to ameliorate severe wintertime pollution events, and that continued emission reductions in the power generation sector will have the greatest human health and economic benefits.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Future work that focuses on the warm season could investigate the urban ozone sensitivity of e-HDV versus e-LDV adoption fractions, as their electrification could impact NO x /VOC ratios differently, especially within the urban core. Other improvements are potentially more fundamental, such as designing the modeling framework to maximize use of the results by policymakers and stakeholders, as recent evidence suggests harmonization across studies could be improved (Hess et al, 2020).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for electric vehicle adoption to mitigate extreme air quality events in China

Schnell

Peters

Wong³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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China faces the concurrent challenges of mitigating anthropogenic climate change and improving air quality. China contributes ∼30% of global CO 2 emissions in 2014 (Boden et al., 2017) and ambient pollution Abstract Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co-benefits. As such, China has aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with regard to EVs' mitigation potential, including optimal vehicle type prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air regulations, and the ability of EVs to reduce acute impacts of extreme air quality events. Here, we present a suite of scenarios with a chemistry transport model that assess the potential co-benefits of EVs during an extreme winter air quality event. We find that regardless of power generation source, heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) electrification consistently improves air quality in terms of NO 2 and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), potentially avoiding 562 deaths due to acute pollutant exposure during the infamous January 2013 pollution episode (∼1% of total premature mortality). However, HDV electrification does not reduce GHG emissions without enhanced emission-free electricity generation. In contrast, due to differing emission profiles, light-duty vehicle (LDV) electrification in China consistently reduces GHG emissions (∼2 Mt CO 2 ), but results in fewer air quality and human health improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic impacts for human health endpoints and CO 2 reductions for LDV electrification are nearly double those of HDV electrification in present-day (155M vs. 87M US$), but are within ∼25% when enhanced emission-free generation is used to power them. Overall, we find only a modest benefit for EVs to ameliorate severe wintertime pollution events, and that continued emission reductions in the power generation sector will have the greatest human health and economic benefits.Plain Language Summary Electric vehicles (EVs) offer potential air quality and climate change co-benefits, but due to varying power generation and vehicle types, and because air pollution chemistry is nonlinear, it is not clear to what extent EVs could provide mediation, especially during extreme air pollution episodes. China is both rapidly adopting EVs and frequently experiences poor air quality. We use an air quality model that simulates the complex interplay between weather and air quality to examine the potential co-benefits of EVs in China during a historical pollution episode. We simulate both light-and heavy-duty vehicle adoption to show their individual benefits, and demonstrate the need for low-emission electricity generation to maximize co-benefits. Overall, we find that heavy-duty fleet electrification consistently improves air quality and reduces mortality, but offers little climate change benefits without enhanced emission-free electricity generation. Light-duty vehicles, however, offer large climate change benefits but few air quality improvements, highli...

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“…Researchers ought to challenge themselves to incorporate these key public health steps into their own scholarly efforts as they strive to optimize health for all. While the proposed framework is new, it builds off of existing guidance documents including checklists on health effects of mitigation actions have been proposed [ 68 ] and drive policy changes [ 248 ]. The framework also serves as a reminder to incorporate health benefits with policy rather than emphasis on economic assessment as has been described previously [ 238 , 249 ].…”

Section: Final Recommendations For Stakeholdersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research

Bikomeye

Rublee

Beyer

2021

IJERPH

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Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems’ resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.

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Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

Cited by 51 publications

References 42 publications

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

Potential for electric vehicle adoption to mitigate extreme air quality events in China

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research

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