Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Methodology for Modelling Dietary Exposure to Pesticide Residues

Hart, Andy; Ossendorp, Bernadette C.; Hamey, Paul Y.; Klaveren, Jacob van; Kennedy, Marc C.; Miller, D.; Petersen, Annette; Picó, Yolanda; Strömberg, Anita; Voet, Hilko van der

doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2012.2839

Cited by 118 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…It is noted in the EFSA Guidance on the use of probabilistic methodology that these approaches should be complementary to, but not replacements for deterministic approaches. Probabilistic approaches achieve a more realistic exposure by using distributions to represent the range of variation within the datasets for consumption and residue concentration (EFSA PPR, 2012). In contrast deterministic assessments use conservative point estimates for these parameters taken from the upper end of the distribution of values.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Probabilistic methods are used routinely to assess pesticide exposure in the US; the Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model (DEEM) allows acute probabilistic dietary exposure to be calculated, including specific information about the range and probability of possible exposures. Following recent developments in the EU, both in the assessment of the available methods and the development of computational tools to conduct such assessments, the EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) noted in a recent opinion that the probabilistic method is a potentially useful tool for conducting refined consumer exposure assessments (EFSA PPR, 2012). To further refine the estimated glyphosate exposures, probabilistic estimates were made following the EFSA guidance and using the MCRA 8.0 tool developed within the EU-funded Acropolis project (EU, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In contrast to the deterministic assessment methods, which combine a single high-level consumption event with a single measured residue value, probabilistic techniques allow the distribution of intakes amongst individuals within a population to be estimated, taking into account the variability in food consumption between and within individuals and in the occurrence of residues in food commodities (EFSA PPR, 2012). Probabilistic methods are used routinely to assess pesticide exposure in the US; the Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model (DEEM) allows acute probabilistic dietary exposure to be calculated, including specific information about the range and probability of possible exposures.…”

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confidence: 99%

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An assessment of dietary exposure to glyphosate using refined deterministic and probabilistic methods

Stephenson¹,

Harris²

2016

Food and Chemical Toxicology

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Glyphosate is a herbicide used to control broad-leaved weeds. Some uses of glyphosate in crop production can lead to residues of the active substance and related metabolites in food. This paper uses data on residue levels, processing information and consumption patterns, to assess theoretical lifetime dietary exposure to glyphosate. Initial estimates were made assuming exposure to the highest permitted residue levels in foods. These intakes were then refined using median residue levels from trials, processing information, and monitoring data to achieve a more realistic estimate of exposure. Estimates were made using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Exposures were compared to the acceptable daily intake (ADI)-the amount of a substance that can be consumed daily without an appreciable health risk. Refined deterministic intakes for all consumers were at or below 2.1% of the ADI. Variations were due to cultural differences in consumption patterns and the level of aggregation of the dietary information in calculation models, which allows refinements for processing. Probabilistic exposure estimates ranged from 0.03% to 0.90% of the ADI, depending on whether optimistic or pessimistic assumptions were made in the calculations. Additional refinements would be possible if further data on processing and from residues monitoring programmes were available.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of dietary exposure to glyphosate using refined deterministic and probabilistic methods

Stephenson¹,

Harris²

2016

Food and Chemical Toxicology

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“…For these calculations, EFSA applied the main methodological principles described in the guidance document on probabilistic modelling of dietary exposure to pesticide residues (EFSA PPR Panel, 2012). For these calculations, EFSA applied the main methodological principles described in the guidance document on probabilistic modelling of dietary exposure to pesticide residues (EFSA PPR Panel, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the ratio of the NOAEL to that of the index compound (EFSA PPR Panel, 2012). When an index compound is identified for the CAG, toxicological potency may also be expressed as a relative potency factor, i.e.…”

Section: Active Substancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative dietary exposure assessment of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid using SAS® software

Dujardin¹,

Bocca²

2019

EFS2

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Retrospective dietary exposure assessments were conducted for two groups of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid: hypertrophy, hyperplasia and neoplasia of C-cells, and hypothyroidism. The pesticides considered in this assessment were identified and characterised in the scientific report on the establishment of cumulative assessment groups of pesticides for their effects on the thyroid. The exposure assessments used monitoring data collected by Member States under their official pesticide monitoring programmes in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and individual food consumption data from 10 populations of consumers from different countries and from different age groups. Exposure estimates were obtained for each group of pesticides by means of a 2-dimensional probabilistic model, which was implemented in SAS ® software. Results were validated against exposure estimates obtained by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) using the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software. Both tools produced nearly identical results and minor differences were mainly attributed to the random effect of probabilistic modelling. The exposure estimates obtained in this report are used in the final scientific report on the cumulative dietary risk characterisation of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid. The latter combines the hazard assessment and exposure assessment into a consolidated risk characterisation including all uncertainties.

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Screening safe pesticide application rates in crop fields for protecting consumer health: A backward model for interim recommended rates

2022

Integr Envir Assess & Manag

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To reduce human health risks and comply with regulatory standards, it is necessary to provide safe application rates of pesticides in crop fields. In this study, a screening-level model is proposed to improve the regulation of pesticide application rates based on the dynamiCrop platform, which can serve as a complementary approach to field trials for regulatory agencies. The screening-level model can conveniently simulate safe application rates of pesticides based on consumer health risks and maximum residue levels (MRLs). Using 2,4-D as an example, the simulation results agreed with the data of field trials under Good Agricultural Practices and demonstrated that current manufacturers' recommended application rates can effectively comply with MRLs and protect human health. In addition, we simulated the default safe application rates of 449 pesticides in five common crops using the default values of the acceptable daily intake (ADI; 0.01 mg kg −1 day −1 ) and MRL (0.01 mg kg −1 ). The results demonstrated that aerial-fruit crops (e.g., tomatoes and apples) had much lower default safe application rates of pesticides than tuber crops due to the different pesticide uptake mechanisms of plants. In addition, the MRL-based default safe application rates were significantly lower than the ADI-based default rates, indicating that the default MRL of 0.01 mg kg −1 adopted by current regulatory agencies is very conservative regarding population health risks. Although other factors, such as the variability of residue levels in crops, occupational exposure (farmers and operators), and multiple pesticide application patterns, need to be considered in future studies, our screening-level model could be used as a complementary tool in field trials to assist regulatory agencies in regulating pesticide application rates in crop fields. Integr

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Guidance on the Use of Probabilistic Methodology for Modelling Dietary Exposure to Pesticide Residues

Abstract: No abstract availabl

Cited by 118 publications

References 32 publications

An assessment of dietary exposure to glyphosate using refined deterministic and probabilistic methods

An assessment of dietary exposure to glyphosate using refined deterministic and probabilistic methods

Cumulative dietary exposure assessment of pesticides that have chronic effects on the thyroid using SAS® software

Screening safe pesticide application rates in crop fields for protecting consumer health: A backward model for interim recommended rates

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