Guidance for Selecting Model Options in the National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Software

E., Irimata Katherine; Bastian, Brigham; Clarke, Tainya C.; Curtin, Sally C.; Rui, Pinyao

doi:10.15620/cdc:118050

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…Joinpoint regression analysis was performed using Joinpoint software version 5.0 to identify significant changes over time in search trends [25]. This approach pinpoints trend inflection points ("joinpoints") and estimates the regression function between joinpoints [26]. The monthly percentage change (MPC) summarized linear trends in search volumes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Adverse Outcomes of Xylazine Misuse: A Digital Surveillance Study

Bhagavathula,

Aldhaleei,

Kim

2024

Preprint

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Background: Xylazine is an animal tranquilizer without approved medical use in humans that is increasingly being misused as an adulterant in illicit drugs. This study aimed to characterize national trends and adverse outcomes associated with the emerging misuse of xylazine using digital surveillance data. Methods: We examined online search trends and social media discussions related to xylazine misuse in the U.S. from 2019 to 2023 using Google Searches data and conducted Joinpoint regression to assess trends. We also examined social media attention using Almetric attention score and analyzed reports on xylazine in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) through September 2023 using logistic regression. Results: Our analysis revealed an overall increasing trend in online searches for XYLAZINE nationally, with an average monthly percentage change of 4.6% (95% CI: 3.9 to 5.1, P trend <0.001), indicating growing awareness. On social media, mentions of xylazine rose exponentially starting in late 2021. Analysis of the FAERS data identified 94 reports of adverse events related to xylazine, most of which involved men (70.2%), with a mean age of 36.5 (SD: 14.3) years. Alarmingly, these xylazine-linked adverse events had an 87.2% fatality rate, which increased over 40-fold with concurrent fentanyl use (reported OR: 40.5, 95% CI: 4.0 to 407.4, P = 0.002). Conclusions: These findings underscore the urgent need for greater public health awareness, harm reduction strategies, and enhanced surveillance targeting the worsening xylazine addiction and overdose crisis.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Adverse Outcomes of Xylazine Misuse: A Digital Surveillance Study

Bhagavathula,

Aldhaleei,

Kim

2024

Preprint

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“…Age-standardized rates were calculated using the age composition of the population from the sixth national census in 2010. Trend analysis was performed using the Joinpoint regression program (4.8.0.1) ( 29 ). The APC model was constructed and analyzed using the “Epi” package in the R language ( 30 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

Wang,

Hu,

et al. 2024

Front. Oncol.

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IntroductionLiver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.MethodsData were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively.ConclusionsThe early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

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“…The turning point of the shifting trend is derived by computing the sum of squared residuals between the estimated and actual values. 7 We utilized Joinpoint (version 4.9.1.0; National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA) to construct this model. Additionally, we calculated the Annual Percentage Change (APC), Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), and their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Changing and Predicted Trends in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Burden in China, the United States, and India from 1990 to 2030

Guo,

Gan,

Xue

et al. 2024

COPD

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Background This study analyzed the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China, the United States, and India from 1990 to 2019 and projected the trends for the next decade. Methods This study utilized the GBD 2019 to compare the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, and the proportion attributed to different risk factors in China, the United States, and India. Joinpoint models and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were employed to capture the changing trends in disease burden and forecast outcomes. Results From 1990 to 2019, China’s age-standardized COPD incidence and mortality rates decreased by 29% and 70%, respectively. In the same period, India’s rates decreased by 8% and 33%, while the United States saw an increase of 9% in COPD incidence and a 22% rise in mortality rates. Smoking and ambient particulate matter pollution are the two most significant risk factors for COPD, while household air pollution from solid fuels and low temperatures are the least impactful factors in the United States and India, respectively. The proportion of risk from household air pollution from solid fuels is higher in India than in China and the United States. Predictions for 2030 suggest that the age-standardized DALY rates, ASIR, and ASMR in the United States and India are expected to remain stable or decrease, while China’s age-standardized incidence rate is projected to rise. Conclusion Over the past three decades, the incidence of COPD has been decreasing in China and India, while showing a slight increase in the United States. Smoking and ambient particulate matter pollution are the primary risk factors for men and women, respectively. The risk of household air pollution from solid fuels in India needs attention.

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Guidance for Selecting Model Options in the National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Software

Abstract: This report provides guidance to users of National Center for Health Statistics data in the selection of modeling options when using the NCI Joinpoint regression software to analyze trends.

Cited by 7 publications

References 4 publications

Trends and Adverse Outcomes of Xylazine Misuse: A Digital Surveillance Study

Trends and Adverse Outcomes of Xylazine Misuse: A Digital Surveillance Study

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

The Changing and Predicted Trends in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Burden in China, the United States, and India from 1990 to 2030

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