Abstract:Context. The potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA) (99942) Apophis is one of the most remarkable near-Earth asteroids (NEA) in terms of impact hazard. A good determination of its surface thermal inertia is very important in order to evaluate the Yarkovsky effect on its orbital evolution. Aims. We present thermal infrared observations obtained on January 29, 2013, with CanariCam mid-infrared camera/spectrograph attached to the Gran Telescopio CANARIAS (GTC, Roque de los Muchachos Observatory, La Palma, Spain) us… Show more
“…Müller et al (2014) obtain p V = 0.30 +0.05 −0.06 from far-infrared observations with ESA's Herschel space observatory. Recent thermal infrared observations put p V in the range 0.24-0.33 (Licandro et al, 2016), in accordance with radar observations that gives p V = 0.35 ± 0.10 (Brozović et al, 2018). Farnocchia et al (2013a) used p V = 0.23 ± 0.02.…”
Section: Uncertainty Quantification Of the Physical Modelsupporting
confidence: 84%
“…Müller et al (2014) use full range of Γ of 250-800 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , with best solution at Γ = 600 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , giving log 10 (Γ ) = 2.7 ± 0.25. Licandro et al (2016) constrain the thermal inertia of Apophis to lie in the range 50-500 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , giving log 10 (Γ ) = 2.2 ± 0.5. Farnocchia et al (2013a) used a generic relationship between the thermal inertia and the diameter which led to log 10 (Γ ) = 2.65 ± 0.08.…”
Section: Uncertainty Quantification Of the Physical Modelmentioning
We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study, we consider Apophis’ risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 5\times 10^{-5}$$
IP
≤
5
×
10
-
5
for the 2036 keyhole and $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 1.6\times 10^{-5}$$
IP
≤
1.6
×
10
-
5
for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.
“…Müller et al (2014) obtain p V = 0.30 +0.05 −0.06 from far-infrared observations with ESA's Herschel space observatory. Recent thermal infrared observations put p V in the range 0.24-0.33 (Licandro et al, 2016), in accordance with radar observations that gives p V = 0.35 ± 0.10 (Brozović et al, 2018). Farnocchia et al (2013a) used p V = 0.23 ± 0.02.…”
Section: Uncertainty Quantification Of the Physical Modelsupporting
confidence: 84%
“…Müller et al (2014) use full range of Γ of 250-800 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , with best solution at Γ = 600 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , giving log 10 (Γ ) = 2.7 ± 0.25. Licandro et al (2016) constrain the thermal inertia of Apophis to lie in the range 50-500 Jm −2 s −0.5 K −1 , giving log 10 (Γ ) = 2.2 ± 0.5. Farnocchia et al (2013a) used a generic relationship between the thermal inertia and the diameter which led to log 10 (Γ ) = 2.65 ± 0.08.…”
Section: Uncertainty Quantification Of the Physical Modelmentioning
We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study, we consider Apophis’ risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 5\times 10^{-5}$$
IP
≤
5
×
10
-
5
for the 2036 keyhole and $${\mathrm{IP}}\le 1.6\times 10^{-5}$$
IP
≤
1.6
×
10
-
5
for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.
“…According to Delbo et al (2007), it has a diameter of 270±60 m, an absolute magnitude H=19.7±0.4, and a geometric albedo pv=0.33±0.08. Licandro et al (2015) find effective diameter D=380-393 m, pv=0.24- Figure 7. The Secular Light Curve of 3200 Phaethon.…”
Using the Secular Light Curve (SLC) formalism (Ferrín, 2010a; PSS, 58, 365-391), we searched for cometary activity of six NEAS: 2201 Oljato. The SLC exhibits significant cometary activity and evidence of an eclipse. 3200 Phaethon. Is the parent of the Geminid meteor stream and exhibited a faint tail at perihelion in several oppositions. The SLC fails to show cometary activity using a 1995 to 2017 data set, suggesting that we are in the presence of a dormant cometary nucleus. 99942 Apophis. This SLC does not shows evidence of cometary activity, however it shows evidence of an eclipse. The evidence of a double nature is confirmed with Goldstone and Arecibo radar observations. 162173 Ryugu. This NEA is the target of the Hayabusa 2 spacecraft mission. The SLC exhibits an enhancement consistent with cometary activity. It may be possible to confirm or deny this activity by the end of the mission. 495848= 2002 QD7. This NEA shows deviations from a flat distribution near perihelion in 2007 and 2017. However our own observations in 2018 show a bare nucleus, from which we obtain an absolute nuclear magnitude mV(nucleus) = 18.32±0.03 (using pV=0.04). The equivalent diameter is D=1.43±0.10 km. 6063 Jason. The SLC of this NEA exhibits low level cometary activity centred at perihelion. The fact that a cursory search for low level active comets among NEAs has uncovered four positive objects out of 6, hints that many more faint comets should exist as yet undetected.
“…Until by now, the available thermal infrared measurements of Apophis are the far-IR data observed by the Herschel Space Observatory (Müller et al, 2014), and three mid-IR data measured by CanariCam of Gran Telescopio CANARIAS (Licandro et al, 2016). All these data are used in this work to be compared with the theoretical flux simulated from the so-called Advanced thermophysical Model so as to derive the possible scale of surface thermophysical properties.…”
Section: Thermal Infrared Observationsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Licandro et al (2016) used the same TPM like Müller et al (2014), but added three new mid-infrared data measured by CanariCam of Gran Telescopio CANARIAS. Both the work of Müller et al (2014) and Licandro et al (2016) assumed constant thermal emissivity to derive the surface thermophysical properties, but actually the thermal emissivity may be wavelength dependent from mid-infrared to far infrared (Müller & Lagerros, 1998), which should be taken into account when deriving the surface thermophysical properties.…”
In this work, we investigate the surface thermophysical properties (thermal emissivity, thermal inertia, roughness fraction and geometric albedo) of asteroid (99942) Apophis, using the currently available thermal infrared observations of CanariCam on Gran Telescopio CANARIAS and far-infrared data by PACS of Herschel, on the basis of the Advanced thermophysical model. We show that the thermal emissivity of Apophis should be wavelength dependent from 8.70 µm to 160 µm, and the maximum emissivity may arise around 20 µm similar to that of Vesta. Moreover, we further derive the thermal inertia, roughness frac-
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