Growing Threats From Unprecedented Sequential Flood‐Hot Extremes Across China

Liao, Zhen; Chen, Yang; Li, Wei; Zhai, Panmao

doi:10.1029/2021gl094505

Cited by 38 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 85 publications

(109 reference statements)

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“…Our findings indicate that the fraction of floods temporally compounded by hot extremes is projected to increase consistently across the majority of catchments in the context of climate change. This is consistent with previous studies that find CFH events are becoming more frequent under climate warming (Liao et al., 2021; Zhang & Villarini, 2020). Furthermore, we find that the bivariate CFH hazards could rise markedly under global warming, primarily due to enhancing hot extremes.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

“…However, it should be noted that different sequences involve different physical drivers and may response divergently to global warming. The flood‐hot extreme sequence is typically linked with TCs and is prevalent in coastal regions, including southeast China, Japan, and northwest Australia (Liao et al., 2021; Matthews et al., 2019). With climate warming, the increasing frequency and intensity of TCs can be dominant drivers in altering this sequence of CFH hazards for these regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It should be noted that the 7‐day threshold only refers to the interval time between floods and hot extremes but does not limit the duration of a flood or a hot extreme. Similar to previous studies (Chen et al., 2021; Liao et al., 2021), we match each flood with the first hot extreme event. We only retain the largest flood accompanied by the same hot extreme to avoid redundancy.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Conversely, a flood may be followed by a hot extreme. Major tropical cyclones (TCs) can trigger devastating flooding and leave sustained heat that compensate for the fall in air temperature, contributing to the development of a sequential extreme hot event (Liao et al., 2021; Matthews et al., 2019; Parker et al., 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent example was the 2019 Queensland, Australia event, where compound heat and flooding caused over $1.2 billion U.S. in economic losses (Zhang & Villarini, 2020). Similarly, the sudden switch from a flood to a heat extreme can exacerbate damages (Chen et al., 2021; Liao et al., 2021; Matthews et al., 2019). A large flood can overwhelm infrastructure and cause electricity outrages, while a subsequent heatwave can drive air conditioning needs, such that their occurrence in rapid succession may cause destructive socio‐economic impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

Troin

Yin

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Under global warming, a novel category of extreme events has become increasingly apparent, where flood and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages to infrastructure and ecosystems. However, these bivariate compound flood‐hot extreme (CFH) hazards have not been comprehensively examined at the global scale, and their evolution under climate warming remains unstudied. Here, we present the first global picture of projected changes in CFH hazards by using a cascade modeling chain of CMIP6 models, satellite and reanalysis data sets, bias correction, and hydrological models. We find an increasing percentage of floods will be accompanied by hot extremes under climate change; the joint return periods of CFHs are projected to decrease globally, particularly in the tropics. These decreasing joint return periods are largely driven by changes in hot extremes and indicate a likely increase of CFH hazards, and ultimately highlight the urgent need to conduct adaptation planning for future risks.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

Troin

Yin

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Rising risks of compound extreme heat‐precipitation events in China

Ning

Luo

Zhang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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While the changes of extreme weather and climate events have been well investigated, the change of compound events (i.e., combinations of multiple weather/climate extremes and/or hazards), which severely affect the biophysical and human systems, remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the decadal trends of subsequently (or “preconditioned”) compound extreme heat‐precipitation events (i.e., extreme precipitation events preceded by an extreme heat) across China during 1961–2016. We find that, on average, around one‐quarter of summer precipitation extremes over China (especially western China) are preceded by an extreme heat event. In most areas of China, the fraction of the compound precipitation events preceded by heat extremes exhibits significant increases since the 1960s, with a national mean increasing tendency of 2.51%·decade−1. Furthermore, the rising trends in the fractional contribution of hot weather to extreme precipitation events over most parts of China have accelerated in more recent decades.

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