GROWING<i>QAWM</i>: AN EVIDENCE-DRIVEN DECLARATIVE MODEL OF AFGHAN POWER STRUCTURES

Geller, Armando; Moss, Scott

doi:10.1142/s0219525908001659

Cited by 31 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…[1]). These efforts include examinations of geography and other structures within countries [50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67] as well as the effects of transnational geography [68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79]. Extensive analysis explores the role of political structures, particularly federalism, in enabling or preventing civil and ethnic conflict [80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence

Rutherford

Harmon

Werfel³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the world lead to conflict and violence. Here we analyze how peaceful stability is maintained. Our analysis shows that peace does not depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries separating groups, allowing for partial autonomy within a single country. In Switzerland, mountains and lakes are an important part of the boundaries between sharply defined linguistic areas. Political canton and circle (sub-canton) boundaries often separate religious groups. Where such boundaries do not appear to be sufficient, we find that specific aspects of the population distribution guarantee either sufficient separation or sufficient mixing to inhibit intergroup violence according to the quantitative theory of conflict. In exactly one region, a porous mountain range does not adequately separate linguistic groups and that region has experienced significant violent conflict, leading to the recent creation of the canton of Jura. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that violence between groups can be inhibited by physical and political boundaries. A similar analysis of the area of the former Yugoslavia shows that during widespread ethnic violence existing political boundaries did not coincide with the boundaries of distinct groups, but peace prevailed in specific areas where they did coincide. The success of peace in Switzerland may serve as a model to resolve conflict in other ethnically diverse countries and regions of the world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence

Rutherford

Harmon

Werfel³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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show abstract

“…For example, if qualitative data were available on how the time horizon an individual uses to make a decision varies with their degree of uncertainty about outcomes and perception that things are improving or deteriorating, the appropriate time horizon could be used to adjust the inputs to a statistical model of behavior. See Yang and Gilbert (2008) for more on qualitative data and agent-based models and Geller and Moss (2008) for an example of agent behavior that is empirically grounded using a stakeholder approach.…”

Section: Empirically Grounded Agent-based Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-Based Models in Empirical Social Research

Bruch

Atwell

2013

Sociological Methods & Research

224

163

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Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research.

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“…Including land exchange between different categories of farmers, as well as between farmers and other types of land users, is challenging because the various agents within the land market have different criteria with respect to land value and other financial and legal positions that require different types of data evidence (Geller and Moss 2008). This may also explain why many contemporary land exchange models do not model categorical land-use change since they are limited to rather homogeneous populations of agents (Matthews et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

et al. 2014

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Introduction Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing farmers, nature organizations, and estate owners. Methods The RULEX model (Rural Land EXchange) was calibrated and applied to a 300 km 2 case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Decision rules about which actor will sell and buy land, as well as which specific land to buy or sell are based on historical observations, interviews, and choice experiments.Results A reconstruction of land-use change for the period 2001-2009 demonstrates that RULEX reproduces most observed land-use trends and patterns. Given that RULEX simulates only one mechanism of land-use change, i.e. land exchange, it is conservative in simulating change. Conclusions With this model, we demonstrate the potential of incorporating land market processes in an agent-based, land-use change model. This supports understanding of land-use change that is brought about by ownership change, which is an important process in areas where pressure on land is high. The soundness of the process representation was corroborated by stakeholders within the study area. Land exchange models can be used to assess the impact of changes in climate, markets, and policy on land use change, and help to increase effectiveness of alternative land purchasing strategies by stakeholders or spatial planning policy.

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GROWINGQAWM: AN EVIDENCE-DRIVEN DECLARATIVE MODEL OF AFGHAN POWER STRUCTURES

Cited by 31 publications

References 5 publications

Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence

Good Fences: The Importance of Setting Boundaries for Peaceful Coexistence

Agent-Based Models in Empirical Social Research

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange: an agent-based simulation model

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