Group Normative Propensities, Societal Positioning, and Childbearing: Ethno-linguistic Variation in Completed and Desired Fertility in Transitional Central Asia

Abstract

Considerable research in western, low-fertility contexts has examined minority-vs.-majority fertility differentials, typically focusing on minority groups’ cultural idiosyncrasies and on socioeconomic disadvantages associated with minority status. However, the formation and functioning of ethnic complexities outside the western world often diverge from the standard western model and so may their impact on fertility preferences, behavior, and outcomes. We expand on the previous research by analyzing ethnic variation in completed and desired fertility in the multiethnic transitional setting of Kyrgyzstan, where ethnic groups and their ethnolinguistic sub-parts are characterized by both different stages of the demographic transition and different positioning in the socioeconomic and political hierarchies. Using combined data from two rounds of a nationally representative survey, we find that ethnic-specific levels of completed fertility generally align with culturally shaped group-level normative propensities. In contrast, in desires to have a(nother) child, the ranking of the ethnic segments is more reflective of their collective societal positioning, with more disadvantaged segments having lower fertility desires, regardless of actual number of children and various other characteristics. We also find that ethnic homophily of respondents’ social milieu and their optimism about the future of their ethnic group are positively associated with fertility desires, even though these associations are more potently present among women, compared to men. We relate our findings to the extant scholarship and reflect on their implications for a better understanding of ethno-racial fertility dynamics and differentials in transitional contexts.

Ethnic context and fertility differential in post‐Soviet Kazakhstan

“…Second, the spatial diffusion process indicates that groups of higher density may exert a multiplicative effect on consolidating social support and pronatalist norms (Agadjanian & Nedoluzhko, 2022; Puur et al, 2022). Because opportunities, concrete rewards, and useful information are intensively transmitted within racialized social networks (McDonald, 2011), more co‐ethnic members in the local context implicate stronger social support and norm reinforcement (Yang et al, 2016).…”

“…Second, the spatial diffusion process indicates that groups of higher density may exert a multiplicative effect on consolidating social support and pronatalist norms (Agadjanian & Nedoluzhko, 2022;Puur et al, 2022).…”

“…As a result, minority status is fluid and relative, contingent on the context that stratifies power and goods. For fertility differentials, racial stratification theory suggests that the source of fertility differentials should be understood within the evolving context of relative stratification and demographic composition (Agadjanian & Nedoluzhko, 2022; Greenhalgh, 1990).…”

“…In terms of fertility, an earlier study found that the percentage of Latinos help encourages pronatalist behaviours among minorities (Abma & Krivo, 1991). Recently, Agadjanian and Nedoluzhko (2022) showed relative ethnic positioning measured by homophily of social milieu accounts for the depressed fertility desire among European minorities in Kyrgyzstan. Wilson and Kuha (2018) found that context‐level diversity and segregation are associated with depressed fertility in the UK.…”

“…An otherwise dominant racial group may dwindle in size or lose its relative power depending on the local racial/ethnic composition. Overall, the contextual and spatial paradigm invites the thinking of how ethnic contexts influence individuals' fertility outcome (Agadjanian & Nedoluzhko, 2022; Frank & Heuveline, 2005; McDaniel, 1996).…”